Assessing climate change impacts on timber supply using species-specific growth and yield impact multipliers method

Abstract

The objective of this thesis is to assess climate change impacts on timber supply from 2010 to 2100 for Crown License 1 in northern New Brunswick, and effects on forest management strategies. Species-specific climate change growth and yield impact multipliers were calculated and adjusted yield curves were input to a timber supply model. Average growth potential of Abies balsamea, Picea sp., and Betula papyrifera was predicted to decrease by 36% by 2100, while Fagus grandifolia, Acer saccharum, and Betula alleghaniensis were predicted to increase by over 200%. At the forest level, the model projected 10 million m3 less softwood merchantable growing stock in year 2100 with climate change impacts under baseline management strategies. Management strategies were adjusted to adapt Crown License 1 to climate change. Softwood merchantable growing stock was 14 million m3 more in year 2070 than with baseline management strategies. This caused larger volume harvested (4 million m3) from 2070-2100.