Sephton, Peter, S.2023-03-012023-03-01https://unbscholar.lib.unb.ca/handle/1882/13110In this note we estimate the probability of recession using the revised leading index published by Statistics Canada. The results are compared to probabilities derived from a new non-parametric regression routine. While the indexes provide similar information on the probability that the economy is currently in recession, the non-parametric approach appears to offer more reliable information. Two out-of-sample forecasting exercises demonstrate the potential benefits to the use of the multivariate adaptive regression spline model.Englishhttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2working paperEconomics