Browsing by Author "Stairs, Mike"

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    The role of river ice breakup in flood forecasting
    (University of New Brunswick, 1989) Stairs, Mike; Davar, K.; S., Davar
    n 1987, f l o o d i n g on the St. John River i n New Brunswick due t o i c e jams, r e s u l t e d i n damages e s t i m a t e d at $30 m i l l i o n. T h i s r e p o r t examines r i v e r i c e breakup - t h e general behavior o f, and the consequences t h a t may occur once t h e ice has broken up. The report presents the development of a stepwise l i n e ar r e g r e s s i o n model t h a t w i l l aid i n e s t i m a t i n g the date of r i v er i c e breakup. This model used four independent variablesd i s c h a r g e , p o s i t i v e cumulative degree days, ice thickness and r i v e r stage at i n i t i a l i c e cover f o r m a t i o n , to r e l a t e t o t i m e of breakup, a dependent v a r i a b l e . The data used i n the model was c o l l e c t e d from a r i v e r gauge s t a t i o n , at Durham Bridge on the Nashwaak River, f o r the years 1965 - 1989. This model provides an i n s i g h t i n t o which independent v a r i a b l e s are most s i g n i f i c a n t f o r t h e t i m i n g of i c e cover breakup. The purpose of developing and examining t h i s model was to access the f e a s i b i l i t y f o r p o t e n t i al use as a p r e d i c t i n g model. I f time of ice cover breakup can be known i n advance, p r e p a r a t i o n s can be made t o avoid any damages from p o t e n t i a l i c e jams. In t u r n , m i l l i o n s of d o l l a r s could be saved!