Estimating softwood lumber export response in Canadian provinces to six trade restriction periods between Canada and the U.S.
University of New Brunswick
The Canada-US softwood lumber dispute is one of the longest trade disputes to exist between the two countries. The US has imposed numerous trade restrictions against Canadian softwood lumber exports. Several studies have examined the impacts of these restrictions along with other factors that can affect these exports. In this study, I explore the impacts of a broad set of softwood lumber trade restrictions/agreements on exports from Canadian provinces, and specifically estimate the degree of trade diversion from provinces named under the restrictions/agreements to non-named provinces. To do so, I use a modified gravity model developed by Gulati & Malhotra (2006) together with an updated monthly/annual provincial-level dataset from 1988 to 2020. I find that several softwood lumber trade restrictions have led to significant trade diversion from named to non-named provinces.