Retention rate and labour market performance of movers & stayers in New Brunswick

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University of New Brunswick


Given low birth rates, an aging population, and youth out-migration, policies concerning attracting and retaining new immigrants to New Brunswick are important for reversing the declining population trend. This study investigates immigrants' short- and long-term retention rates in New Brunswick (NB) and examines their labour market outcomes. Using the Immigrants Longitudinal Database (IMDB) and employing quantitative methods including Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, I estimate retention rates of immigrants who arrived in NB in 1986, 1996, 2006, 2011, and 2012. I observe that immigrants' mobility is high initially and subsequently drops and the overall retention rate stabilizes after nine years. While the retention rate is highest for the family class, it is lowest for the refugee class. My disaggregated analysis based on education-level and age-at-arrival also reiterate the variation in retention rates for different groups of immigrants. My findings will help NB to project short- and long-term population growth and design effective immigration policies to increase immigrants' retention and integration in the labour market upon arrival.