Impermanent Immigration: An Analysis of Factors Influencing the Retention of Immigrants in New Brunswick

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University of New Brunswick


New Brunswick struggles to attract immigrants and, further, struggles to prevent secondary migration, despite the importance of immigration to the province. This study links four administrative datasets to model the migration trends of immigrants to the province between 1971 and 2019. While previous research using this data focused on modelling outmigration based on age and nationality, this paper focuses on analyzing the effects of various interventions on the retention and integration of immigrants in New Brunswick by employing methods of survival analysis in the form of Kaplan Meier and Cox Proportional Hazard models. It was found that individuals who participate in career counselling have significantly higher retention rates than those who do not, with a disaggregated analysis covering the impact of different types of career counselling on the retention of immigrants. NBPNP immigrants, however, were found to have lower retention rates than expected. Such results highlight the viability of using administrative data to analyze and devise policy for immigration, especially in smaller locations like New Brunswick.