New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training

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https://unbscholar.lib.unb.ca/handle/1882/37730

The New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) is a leading research institute at the University of New Brunswick with several locations throughout the province. NB-IRDT transforms provincial data into actionable insights to inform public policy, enhance community well-being, and drive prosperity. Leveraging comprehensive data sets across health, education, social sciences, and other sectors, NB-IRDT collaborates with government agencies, academic institutions, and industry leaders to create impactful research that contributes to effective public policies and societal improvement.

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A profile of employment across industries in New Brunswick: 1996-2019
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2020) Boco, Eton; Leonard, Philip; McDonald, Ted
This report examines employment and industry changes in New Brunswick (NB) over a 20-year period (1996 to 2016) using data from the Canadian Census. It also examines changes over a ten-year period (2009 to 2019) using data from the Labour Force Survey. Results are stratified by CMA/CA1 and by industry using the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).
Immigrant income and labour market outcomes: 2006 - 2015 cohorts
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2021-06) Boco, Eton; Emery, Herb; McDonald, Ted; Mokhtar, Rawia
One of the central goals for the province of New Brunswick (NB) is to boost economic development by increasing labour market participation, and immigration is key to this plan. NB is faced with many demographic challenges, including an aging population, slow population growth, and the out-migration of its younger workers. All these issues have a negative impact on the provincial economy, which in turn is faced with the fiscal challenges of a shrinking tax-base and decreasing workforce. The Government of New Brunswick (GNB) has implemented many immigration programs, all with the expectation that immigrants will play a vital role in remedying these challenges while benefitting from participation in and contribution to the culture and labour market of NB. However, while NB has successfully welcomed a growing number of immigrants over time, there is still a need to retain the immigrants who land here. Immigrant retention poses a challenge for the province’s goal of population growth, as a substantial number of immigrants choose to leave the NB years after landing. In 2019, the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) examined the retention of immigrants arriving through NB’s Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) – one of the many immigration streams implemented by GNB to boost immigration in NB. Researchers found that just about half of PNP immigrants destined for NB were still living in the province five years after arriving. These findings raise further questions, such as, “Who decides to stay? Who decides to leave? And what factors influence these decisions?” Understanding the experiences of immigrants residing in NB may help the province address challenges related to immigrant retention, and since there is a well-established link between mobility and economic opportunity, focusing on the economic experiences of immigrants in NB may shed light on a correlation between experiences and retention. To this end, this report examines the economic outcomes and retention rates of immigrants in NB to investigate trends and determinants of income and retention. With the goal of contributing to evidence-based assessments of provincial immigration policies and efforts, it presents detailed descriptive and empirical evidence on the evolution of immigrant retention and immigrants’ post-landing labour market experiences. This report has five aims: To show changes in the economic and demographic profiles of NB immigrants over time To show how NB’s major cities – Moncton, Saint John, and Fredericton – are doing at retaining immigrants destined for them To show which characteristics are associated with immigrants performing better (i.e., earning more) in the NB labour market To consider whether those with pre-admission time spent in NB on a work or study permit or with asylum claims have an advantage over those who had none before landing as permanent residents To show correlations, if any, between retention and economic success in the form of employment income for immigrants in NB
Lifting restrictions for COVID-19: Implications for New Brunswick
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2020-04-26) McDonald, Ted; Boco, Eton; Christensen, Eva; Daigle, Bethany; Somayaji, Chandy; Bhuiyan, Erfan; McRae, Sarah
The purpose of this rapid review (Part 2 in a 2-part series) is to examine the literature on the various steps being taken around the world to lift restrictions implemented to suppress the spread of COVID-19 – including social restrictions, such as those related to physical distancing, and economic restrictions, such as those affecting the closure of non-essential stores and other businesses. We find that some restrictions, such the closure of schools and non-essential stores and services, are more commonly among the first to be lifted – though this is done so gradually and with accompanying physical distancing and hygiene requirements. Countries around the world have also begun to ease and/or recommend measures impacting travel, recreation, and sectors of the workforce. While it is too soon to observe the outcomes for many of these measures, modelling studies and observations of case trajectories in Asia suggest a COVID-19 resurgence is likely to occur as restrictions are eased – but if appropriate measures are in place to monitor further infection and reinstate intermittent restrictions, future resurgence could be managed. The information presented herein on the experiences of other locations ahead of New Brunswick in their COVID trajectories and in the process of reopening their economies can provide valuable insights into the steps this province could take when lifting its own restrictions in future. For Part 2 of this report, we propose to supplement the current work with a qualitative review of the outcomes of easing restrictions, as well as quantitative metrics on the indicators leading up to lifting restrictions – both of which will be used to guide a discussion of implications for scaling back COVID-19 restrictions in New Brunswick
Post-graduation earnings of NBCC graduates: 2015 to 2017 graduate cohorts
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2023-06) Boco, Eton; Emery, Herb; McDonald, Ted
This report investigates the post-secondary decisions and outcomes of New Brunswick Community College (NBCC) graduates. The presence of a post-secondary institution can be a valuable contributor to the economy of the region in which it is located. The expenditures and employment of post-secondary institutions directly contribute to local GDP, while the graduates contribute to the growth of the supply of skilled labour available to the regional economy. Put together, these play a role in a region’s economic growth. NBCC is an integral part of New Brunswick (NB), and, once graduated, NBCC students who choose to remain local become an important element in workforce development. Therefore, studying these graduates’ outcomes is not only beneficial to NBCC for designing in-house policies for students but also to the province in determining how to better serve such an important demographic. This study reports on the post-graduation median earnings of NBCC graduates by their demographic and background characteristics. It looks at the median earnings of graduates 1, 2, and 3 years after graduation.
Post-secondary graduates' province of study post-graduation residence in New Brunswick and labour market outcomes (2011-2016)
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2023-02) Boco, Eton; Emery, Herb; McDonald, Ted
As New Brunswick (NB) continues to invest in the retention and attraction of university and college graduates, it is important to know what proportion of its residents who leave for post-secondary studies are returning to the province and contributing to the local economy. Based on an analysis of registrar data from Canadian post-secondary institutions linked with tax data from T1 tax returns, this report sets out the mobility and earnings patterns of NB residents who leave the province for their post-secondary studies, comparing them to residents who choose to stay and study in NB. Counts, return rates, and median incomes after graduation are presented by gender, field of study, level of study, and region of study for the 2011 to 2016 tax years.
Rapid response report on lifting restrictions for COVID-19
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2020-04-16) McDonald, Ted; Boco, Eton; Christensen, Eva; Daigle, Bethany; Somayaji, Chandy; Bhuiyan, Erfan; MacRae, Sarah
The purpose of this rapid review (Part 1 in a 2-part series) is to examine the literature on the various steps being taken around the world to lift restrictions implemented to suppress the spread of COVID-19 – including social restrictions, such as those related to physical distancing, and economic restrictions, such as those affecting the closure of non-essential stores and other businesses. We find that some restrictions, such the closure of schools and non-essential stores and services, are more commonly among the first to be lifted – though this is done so gradually and with accompanying physical distancing and hygiene requirements. Countries around the world have also begun to ease and/or recommend measures impacting travel, recreation, and sectors of the workforce. While it is too soon to observe the outcomes for many of these measures, modelling studies and observations of case trajectories in Asia suggest a COVID-19 resurgence is likely to occur as restrictions are eased – but if appropriate measures are in place to monitor further infection and reinstate intermittent restrictions, future resurgence could be managed. The information presented herein on the experiences of other locations ahead of New Brunswick in their COVID trajectories and in the process of reopening their economies can provide valuable insights into the steps this province could take when lifting its own restrictions in future. For Part 2 of this report, we propose to supplement the current work with a qualitative review of the outcomes of easing restrictions, as well as quantitative metrics on the indicators leading up to lifting restrictions – both of which will be used to guide a discussion of implications for scaling back COVID-19 restrictions in New Brunswick
Retention and labour market outcomes of registered apprentices in New Brunswick: 2009 to 2017
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2021-09) Boco, Eton; Emery, Herb; Mokhtar, Rawia
As the second phase of a two-part analysis looking at retention rates and labour market outcomes of post-secondary graduates in New Brunswick (NB), this report examines the trends, retention, and incomes of those who receive apprenticeship certificates in the province. Using the Canada Research Data Centre Network’s Education and Labour Market Longitudinal Platform (ELMLP), it analyzes cohorts of trade certificate holders from 2009 to 2017. Highlight of Findings - Roughly 11,000 trades certificates were granted in NB between 2009 and 2019, the majority of which went to males rather than females, apprentices rather than trade qualifiers, and individuals in Red Seal trades rather than non-Red Seal trades. - Compared to 2009, there were 15% more registrations and 8% more certificates granted in 2019. Roughly 60% of these are in one of the following major trade groups: Automotive service technician, Plumber/Pipefitter/Steamfitter, Carpenter, Welder, or Electrician. Two of these trades, Automotive service technician and Plumber/Pipefitter/Steamfitter, have compulsory certification in NB. - The largest increase in registrations was among Heavy duty equipment mechanics (86%), while the largest increase in certifications was in the Exterior finishing (300%) trade group. - Retention is higher among completers than trade qualifiers. A possible reason behind this is the difference in requirements before a certificate is awarded to either group. - Crane operators, Iron workers, or Power line technicians are usually the highest earners (see Table 8). However, data are not always available for these groups. When they are excluded from the equation due to data limitations, the next highest earning groups are the Industrial instrumentation and Control technician trade groups. Meanwhile, income is lowest among the Cook grade group. - More years since certification does not necessarily translate into higher earnings for all trade groups. For instance, Plumbers in the 2010, 2011, and 2012 cohorts of certificate holders had a lower average income five years after certification compared to two years after certification, sometimes by as much as 18%. - The amount of money paid to later cohorts of most trade groups has declined. Two-year post-certification incomes decreased between the earliest and most recent cohorts in the study period.1 The largest decrease in income was among the Construction electrician trade group, while the largest increase in two-year post-certification median income was in the Cook trade group. - Non-Red Seal trade certificate holders earn considerably more on average than Red Seal trade certificate holders for most cohorts. The higher number of Red Seal trade certified tradespersons compared to non-Red Seal Trade tradespersons might mean more competition for jobs among the - Red Seal trades, creating less competitive wages being offered for this group. Income growth is also sometimes higher among cohorts of non-Red Seal trade certificate holders, which means smaller chances of a ‘catch-up’ for Red Seal trade certificate holders. While Red Seal endorsed certificate holders have an average two-year retention rate of 92%, non-Red Seal endorsed certificate holders have an average two-year retention rate of 65%. Red Seal endorsed certificate holders also earn less on average, sometimes by as much as 20%.
Retention and Mobility of NBCC Graduates: 2017 to 2019 Graduate Cohorts
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2023-05) Boco, Eton; Emery, Herb
Migration from rural and small-town areas to larger urban centers has been a long-standing trend, and as of July 2021, more than half of New Brunswick’s total population lives in either Moncton, Saint John, or Fredericton.This is part of a global migration trend whereby people, mostly young adults, are choosing to leave rural and small towns for larger urban areas. With a median age of 27, New Brunswick Community College (NBCC) graduates comprise the demographic most likely to make this migration decision. The locations of NBCC campuses – three in larger cities and three in small-town areas – also make its graduates a good sample to observe when investigating rural to urban migration decisions. As such, this study reports on the intra-provincial migration trends of NBCC graduates by their campus for the 2017 to 2019 graduation cohorts. Graduate mobility is discussed 1 and 3 years after graduation, showing which NBCC campus’s graduates are more or less likely to remain in or migrate from New Brunswick after graduation.
Rétention, attraction et résultats sur le marché du travail des diplômés de niveau postsecondaire au Nouveau-Brunswick
(l’Institut de recherche, de données et de formation du Nouveau-Brunswick, 2021-05) Boco, Eton; Leonard, Philip; McDonald, Ted
Sommaire Le présent rapport examine les taux de rétention et d’attraction et les résultats sur le marché du travail des diplômés des établissements d’enseignement postsecondaire publics du Nouveau Brunswick. Il utilise les données du Système d’information sur l’éducation postsecondaire (SIEP) et les données fiscales, qui sont couplées par l’entremise de la Plateforme de liens longitudinaux entre l’éducation et le marché du travail du Réseau canadien des Centres de données de recherche. Les nombres de diplômés, les taux de rétention et les revenus annuels sont présentés selon le genre, la province de résidence permanente, le statut d’immigration, le niveau d’études, le domaine d’études et l’établissement pour la période à l’étude de 2009 à 2016. Nombres Environ de 7 000 à 8 000 étudiants obtiennent un diplôme d’un établissement d’enseignement postsecondaire public du Nouveau-Brunswick (N.-B.) chaque année – un nombre qui diminue lentement. o Environ 3 000 étudiants obtiennent un diplôme d’un programme d’études collégiales. o De 3 000 à 4 000 étudiants obtiennent un diplôme d’un programme d’études de premier cycle. o Environ de 600 à 700 étudiants obtiennent un diplôme d’un programme d’études de cycle supérieur. Taux de rétention En moyenne, 78 % des diplômés demeurent au N.-B. au mois de décembre de l’année de l’obtention de leur diplôme, et 72 % y demeurent deux ans plus tard. o Les diplômés du collégial présentent les taux de rétention les plus élevés (92 % l’année de l’obtention de leur diplôme et 87 % deux ans plus tard). Les taux de rétention sont légèrement moins élevés chez les étudiants de cycle supérieur (70 % et 64 %) et les étudiants de premier cycle (69 % et 61 %). o Les étudiants qui résidaient au N.-B. avant leur admission présentent les taux de rétention les plus élevés (92 % l’année de l’obtention de leur diplôme et 84 % deux ans plus tard). La similarité dans les taux de rétention des diplômés du collégial et des étudiants qui résidaient au N.-B. avant leur admission pourrait s’expliquer par le caractère attirant des collèges communautaires pour les étudiants des communautés environnantes. o Les étudiants canadiens présentent des taux de rétention plus élevés (77 % l’année de l’obtention de leur diplôme et 73 % deux ans plus tard) que les étudiants internationaux (60 % remplissent une déclaration de revenus au N.-B. à la fin de l’année de l’obtention de leur diplôme et 38 % font de même deux ans plus tard). Revenu des diplômés Les diplômés ont un revenu imposable moyen d’environ 36 000 $ pendant la première année complète suivant l’obtention de leur diplôme et d’environ 40 000 $ pendant la deuxième année complète (dollars historiques). o Les différences dans le revenu imposable des diplômés s’expliquent par le niveau et le champ d’études : les titulaires d’un grade de premier cycle ont un revenu imposable plus élevé que les diplômés du collégial, et les titulaires d’un grade supérieur ont le revenu imposable le plus élevé. Après une présentation des résultats et une discussion sur les résultats, le présent rapport compare ses constatations à celles d’un rapport semblable de l’IRDF-NB1 qui utilisait des données différentes, et présente l’incidence de l’utilisation de diverses sources de données et méthodologies sur les résultats de l’étude.
Retention, attraction, and labour market outcomes of post-secondary graduates in New Brunswick
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2021-05) Boco, Eton; Leonard, Philip; McDonald, Ted
Executive summary This report examines the retention/attraction rates and labour market outcomes of graduates from New Brunswick’s public post-secondary educational institutions. It uses Post-Secondary Information System (PSIS) data and tax data, linked through the Canadian Research Data Centre Network’s Education and Labour Market Longitudinal Platform. Graduate counts, retention rates, and annual incomes are presented according to sex, province of permanent residence, immigration status, level of study, field of study, and institution for the 2009-2016 study period. Counts About 7,000 to 8,000 students graduate from NB public post-secondary institutions each year – a number that has slowly been decreasing. Around 3,000 students graduate from college programs. Between 3,000 to 4,000 students graduate from undergraduate university programs. About 600 to 700 students graduate from graduate-level university programs. Retention rates On average, 78% of graduates remain in NB by the December of their graduation year, and 72% remain two years later. College graduates have the highest retention rates (92% in the year of graduation and 87% two years later). Retention is slightly lower for graduate students (70% and 64%) and undergraduate students (69% and 61%). Students residing in NB prior to admission have the highest retention (92% in graduation year; 84% two years later). The similarity in retention rates for college graduates and students living in NB prior to admission could be due to the attraction that community colleges have for students from surrounding communities. Domestic students have higher retention (77% in graduation year and 73% two years later) than international students (60% file taxes in NB at the end of their graduation year, and 38% do so two years after). Graduate income On average, graduates have a mean taxable income of around $36,000 in their first full year and $40,000 in their second full year after graduation (nominal dollars). Differences in taxable graduate incomes are primarily driven by differences in level and field of study, with undergraduate degree holders having more taxable income than college graduates, and graduate degree holders having the most. Following the presentation and discussion of results, this report compares its findings to those of a similar NB-IRDT report that utilized different data and demonstrates the impact of varying data sources and methodologies on study outcomes.
Summary Report: Post-graduation earnings of NBCC graduates: 2015 to 2017 graduate cohorts
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2023-06) Boco, Eton; Emery, Herb; McDonald, Ted
This report investigates the post-secondary decisions and outcomes of New Brunswick Community College (NBCC) graduates. The presence of a post-secondary institution can be a valuable contributor to the economy of the region in which it is located. The expenditures and employment of post-secondary institutions directly contribute to local GDP, while the graduates contribute to the growth of the supply of skilled labour available to the regional economy. Put together, these play a role in a region’s economic growth. NBCC is an integral part of New Brunswick (NB), and, once graduated, NBCC students who choose to remain local become an important element in workforce development. Therefore, studying these graduates’ outcomes is not only beneficial to NBCC for designing in-house policies for students but also to the province in determining how to better serve such an important demographic. This study reports on the post-graduation median earnings of NBCC graduates by their demographic and background characteristics. It looks at the median earnings of graduates 1, 2, and 3 years after graduation.
Summary Report: Post-secondary graduates' province of study post-graduation residence in New Brunswick and labour market outcomes (2011-2016)
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2023-02) Boco, Eton; Emery, Herb; McDonald, Ted
As New Brunswick (NB) continues to invest in the retention and attraction of university and college graduates, it is important to know what proportion of its residents who leave for post-secondary studies are returning to the province and contributing to the local economy. Based on an analysis of registrar data from Canadian post-secondary institutions linked with tax data from T1 tax returns, this report sets out the mobility and earnings patterns of NB residents who leave the province for their post-secondary studies, comparing them to residents who choose to stay and study in NB. Counts, return rates, and median incomes after graduation are presented by gender, field of study, level of study, and region of study for the 2011 to 2016 tax years.
Summary Report: Retention and Mobility of NBCC Graduates: 2017 to 2019 Graduate Cohorts
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2023-05) Boco, Eton; Emery, Herb
Migration from rural and small-town areas to larger urban centers has been a long-standing trend, and as of July 2021, more than half of New Brunswick’s total population lives in either Moncton, Saint John, or Fredericton.This is part of a global migration trend whereby people, mostly young adults, are choosing to leave rural and small towns for larger urban areas. With a median age of 27, New Brunswick Community College (NBCC) graduates comprise the demographic most likely to make this migration decision. The locations of NBCC campuses – three in larger cities and three in small-town areas – also make its graduates a good sample to observe when investigating rural to urban migration decisions. As such, this study reports on the intra-provincial migration trends of NBCC graduates by their campus for the 2017 to 2019 graduation cohorts. Graduate mobility is discussed 1 and 3 years after graduation, showing which NBCC campus’s graduates are more or less likely to remain in or migrate from New Brunswick after graduation.

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