Browsing by Author "Murrell, David"

Now showing 1 - 15 of 15
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    Climate Change Plans for Canada: a Full Cost-Benefit Framework for Evaluating Options at the Provincial Level
    Lantz, Van; Murrell, David
    This paper examines the provincial economic impacts from implementing the Kyoto Protocol in Canada under two policy options currently being considered by the federal government: the Broad-as-Practical and Reference-Package options. Using information from federal documents and academic literature, we find that the federal forecasts of undiscounted GDP losses to provincial economies represent misleading indicators of true economic impacts. We suggest that a more accurate provincial impact analysis of GHG policy options would be based on a net present value framework that incorporates discounted costs and ancillary benefits over the time-frame of the program. Once these elements are accounted for, we find that most provinces would benefit under both policy options, and would prefer the Reference-Package. Specifically, the Reference-Package option reduces provincial burdens of achieving Canada's Kyoto commitment, and may do so at virtually no net efficiency cost relative to the Broad-as-Practical option. These findings emphasize the importance of incorporating both market and non-market values into the policy-making arena.
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    Climate Change Plans for Canada: a Full Cost-Benefit Framework for Evaluating Options at the Provincial Level
    Lantz, Van; Murrell, David
    This paper examines the provincial economic impacts from implementing the Kyoto Protocol in Canada under two policy options currently being considered by the federal government: the Broad-as-Practical and Reference-Package options. Using information from federal documents and academic literature, we find that the federal forecasts of undiscounted GDP losses to provincial economies represent misleading indicators of true economic impacts. We suggest that a more accurate provincial impact analysis of GHG policy options would be based on a net present value framework that incorporates discounted costs and ancillary benefits over the time-frame of the program. Once these elements are accounted for, we find that most provinces would benefit under both policy options, and would prefer the Reference-Package. Specifically, the Reference-Package option reduces provincial burdens of achieving Canada's Kyoto commitment, and may do so at virtually no net efficiency cost relative to the Broad-as-Practical option. These findings emphasize the importance of incorporating both market and non-market values into the policy-making arena.
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    Declining labour share in United States and Canada
    (University of New Brunswick, 2015) Kozun, Olga; Murrell, David
    Contrary to standard economic thinking where it is assumed that factor shares are constant over time, significant amount of evidence suggests that this may not be the case. The focus of this report is to estimate the variation of labour shares for Canada and United States for the last eighty years. In addition, we look at the other national income components, labour share measurement issues, commercial and public sectors labour income shares as well as composition of the wage bill in order to determine possible sources of these changes. The results suggest that the labour shares have been declining for the United States since 1970s and for Canada since 1960s. It is also observed that the trend depends on the definition of labour income share.
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    Did the 1994/96 Employment Insurance Reforms Improve Labour Market Outcomes for Young People
    Audas, Rick; Murrell, David
    One of the goals of the Employment Insurance (El) changes during 1994/96 was to reduce the number of habitual, seasonal El users, and to re-channel such users into higher skilled, lower-unemployment occupations. The changes were expected to re-direct a large proportion of young people into more productive human capital acquisition and occupational-choice activity. This paper investigates, using a simple one-equation model, the factors associated with a polychotomous (multinomial) variable describing labour-market states for young people. The model uses year / province interaction variables to explain pre- and post-reform El policy changes, along with labour-market and socioeconomic control variables. This paper finds that labour market/human capital participation for young people improved steadily, from the 1980s through the late 1990s, for young people living as dependants within a family. But for young people living away from their parents, there was little long-run economic improvement. For this group, there is some evidence that the 1994/96 El reforms did play a small role in improving labour market / education outcomes.
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    Did the 1994/96 Employment Insurance Reforms Improve Labour Market Outcomes for Young People
    Audas, Rick; Murrell, David
    One of the goals of the Employment Insurance (El) changes during 1994/96 was to reduce the number of habitual, seasonal El users, and to re-channel such users into higher skilled, lower-unemployment occupations. The changes were expected to re-direct a large proportion of young people into more productive human capital acquisition and occupational-choice activity. This paper investigates, using a simple one-equation model, the factors associated with a polychotomous (multinomial) variable describing labour-market states for young people. The model uses year / province interaction variables to explain pre- and post-reform El policy changes, along with labour-market and socioeconomic control variables. This paper finds that labour market/human capital participation for young people improved steadily, from the 1980s through the late 1990s, for young people living as dependants within a family. But for young people living away from their parents, there was little long-run economic improvement. For this group, there is some evidence that the 1994/96 El reforms did play a small role in improving labour market / education outcomes.
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    Is the Low Savings Rate of Households Indicative of Households in Crisis?
    Myatt, Anthony; Murrell, David
    Analysts have pointed towards increasing household debt, increasing personal bankruptcies, and a declining household savings rate as indicators of a financial crisis in Canadian households. Our conclusion is that, at this point in time, none of these constitute clear evidence of a problem. In particular household debt is more than offset by increases in household financial assets, and the low savings rate is driven both by short run dynamics and increasing real net worth of households. The high level of bankruptcies could be driven by a liberalisation of bankruptcy laws (1992). We note, however, that real PDI per capita has declined since 1989. This may be producing signs of crisis elsewhere - perhaps in increased poverty rates, or increased inequality amongst households.
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    Is the Low Savings Rate of Households Indicative of Households in Crisis?
    Myatt, Anthony; Murrell, David
    Analysts have pointed towards increasing household debt, increasing personal bankruptcies, and a declining household savings rate as indicators of a financial crisis in Canadian households. Our conclusion is that, at this point in time, none of these constitute clear evidence of a problem. In particular household debt is more than offset by increases in household financial assets, and the low savings rate is driven both by short run dynamics and increasing real net worth of households. The high level of bankruptcies could be driven by a liberalisation of bankruptcy laws (1992). We note, however, that real PDI per capita has declined since 1989. This may be producing signs of crisis elsewhere - perhaps in increased poverty rates, or increased inequality amongst households.
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    Net Benefits for Governments, Students and the Public from Spending on Universities in New Brunswick
    Dickson, Vaughan; Milne, Bill; Murrell, David
    This paper measures the benefits and costs from spending on New Brunswick universities for four constituencies: the provincial government, the federal and provincial governments together, students and society taken as a whole. These results are used to provide insights into how university costs should be shared between levels of government and between government and students. Among the results is that, even before allowance is made for net outmigration of university graduates, the rate of return is higher for both levels of government taken together than for the provincial government alone. Another result is that the private student rate of return exceeds the social rate. However this difference largely disappears when spending is restricted to the teaching function of the university.
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    Net Benefits for Governments, Students and the Public from Spending on Universities in New Brunswick
    Dickson, Vaughan; Milne, Bill; Murrell, David
    This paper measures the benefits and costs from spending on New Brunswick universities for four constituencies: the provincial government, the federal and provincial governments together, students and society taken as a whole. These results are used to provide insights into how university costs should be shared between levels of government and between government and students. Among the results is that, even before allowance is made for net outmigration of university graduates, the rate of return is higher for both levels of government taken together than for the provincial government alone. Another result is that the private student rate of return exceeds the social rate. However this difference largely disappears when spending is restricted to the teaching function of the university.
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    Recent Issues in Equalization Payments as They Pertain to Atlantic Canada
    Murrell, David
    Over the past three years a number of issues have cropped up, concerning equalization payments as they pertain to Atlantic Canada. This paper discusses the policy issues using confidential documents from the Department of Finance Canada under the federal Access-to-Information Act. These issues include: Premier John Hamm's Campaign for Fairness and the treatment of off-shore royalties, the imposition of the equalization ceiling in 2000-01, sources of revisions to equalization payments, forecasts of equalization transfers to 2005-06, and the implications of the recent downward revisions in population, in the 2001 Census, on future payments.
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    Recent Issues in Equalization Payments as They Pertain to Atlantic Canada
    Murrell, David
    Over the past three years a number of issues have cropped up, concerning equalization payments as they pertain to Atlantic Canada. This paper discusses the policy issues using confidential documents from the Department of Finance Canada under the federal Access-to-Information Act. These issues include: Premier John Hamm's Campaign for Fairness and the treatment of off-shore royalties, the imposition of the equalization ceiling in 2000-01, sources of revisions to equalization payments, forecasts of equalization transfers to 2005-06, and the implications of the recent downward revisions in population, in the 2001 Census, on future payments.
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