The role of river ice breakup in flood forecasting

Stairs, Mike

The role of river ice breakup in flood forecasting

Date

1989

Authors

Stairs, Mike

Publisher

University of New Brunswick

Abstract

n 1987, f l o o d i n g on the St. John River i n New Brunswick due t o i c e jams, r e s u l t e d i n damages e s t i m a t e d at $30 m i l l i o n. T h i s r e p o r t examines r i v e r i c e breakup - t h e general behavior o f, and the consequences t h a t may occur once t h e ice has broken up. The report presents the development of a stepwise l i n e ar r e g r e s s i o n model t h a t w i l l aid i n e s t i m a t i n g the date of r i v er i c e breakup. This model used four independent variablesd i s c h a r g e , p o s i t i v e cumulative degree days, ice thickness and r i v e r stage at i n i t i a l i c e cover f o r m a t i o n , to r e l a t e t o t i m e of breakup, a dependent v a r i a b l e . The data used i n the model was c o l l e c t e d from a r i v e r gauge s t a t i o n , at Durham Bridge on the Nashwaak River, f o r the years 1965 - 1989. This model provides an i n s i g h t i n t o which independent v a r i a b l e s are most s i g n i f i c a n t f o r t h e t i m i n g of i c e cover breakup. The purpose of developing and examining t h i s model was to access the f e a s i b i l i t y f o r p o t e n t i al use as a p r e d i c t i n g model. I f time of ice cover breakup can be known i n advance, p r e p a r a t i o n s can be made t o avoid any damages from p o t e n t i a l i c e jams. In t u r n , m i l l i o n s of d o l l a r s could be saved!