Economic impacts of climate change in forest and agriculture sectors in Canada :: a computable general equilibrium analysis.
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Date
2013
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University of New Brunswick
Abstract
Climate change could have significant economic impacts in regional economies. This dissertation has presented a comprehensive analysis of economic impacts assessment of climate change in both forest and agriculture sectors in Canada and by extension, US and rest of the world using computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis. Specific contributions include:
(i) estimating the potential economic impacts of climate change on Canada's forests using single-region levels specification CGE models, and cost effectiveness of implementing adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts;
(ii) assessing long-term economy-wide economic impacts of climate change on forestry sector across Canada's provinces and the territories, and potential differences associated with using single-region as opposed to multi-regional CGE modeling framework;
(iii) assessing long-term economy-wide economic impacts of climate change on
agricultural crop production across Canada's provinces and the territories, and extent of regional aggregation differences using two global multi-regional CGE models;
(iv) investigating the extent and nature of potential interactions of economic impacts of climate change between agriculture and forestry sectors in a simultaneous CGE modeling analysis.
Key findings of these analyses include the following:
(i) the physical and economic impacts of climate change in Canadian forests may be substantial and varied across Canada's regions, and adaptation activities to climate change could be supported on economic grounds ;
(ii) that single-region CGE models produce more conservative economic impact estimates relative to a multi-regional model,
(iii) regional disaggregation tended to better capture individual regional uniqueness in terms of economic size, structure, and trade patterns; and
(iv) individual and additive sector analyses produced economic impact estimates that were often overly pessimistic (i.e., less positive or more negative) relative to those produced by the preferred, simultaneous sector analysis.
The results of this study have greatly enhanced understanding of the various aspects of economic impacts of climate change in both agriculture and forest sectors. The knowledge generated from this research will help governments and their agencies, policy makers, and researchers working on climate change impact assessments using COE models make more informed decisions as they strive to mitigate climate change impacts at various levels.