Economic impact of climate change altering the structure of New Brunswick’s and Québec’s Forest: A PICUS-LANDIS CGE analysis

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University of New Brunswick


Climate change and harvesting is expected to alter the structure of forests in Canada, as individual tree species will react differently to regional changes in environmental characteristics. While numerous studies have employed models to assess the ecological and/or economic impacts of such changes on forests, there is need to further refine such analyses. This thesis contributes to the literature by coupling an ecological (PICUS-LANDIS II) modeling framework with an economic (CGE) model to better account for the economic impact associated with changes in forest stand and landscape-level dynamics. To demonstrate the contributions, this thesis considers two case-study regions - New Brunswick, and Québec. The thesis finds that a reduction in softwood supply due to either climate change or harvesting activities results in an economic loss at both the macro and sectoral level. The negative impact on softwood species outweighs the economic benefit associated with climate change positively impacting hardwood species.