Adapting forest management to climate change in the Acadian forest region: A strategic modeling approach

Abstract

Climate change will impact forest dynamics in the Acadian forest region, necessitating adaptive strategies for sustainable forest management. This dissertation examines the impacts of climate change on forest dynamics and management using inventory data from the 5th Canadian Division Support Base Gagetown and climate projections from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Climate-sensitive tools were integrated into strategic forest planning across three interconnected studies.

The first chapter synthesizes projected climate scenarios and their implications for New Brunswick’s forests, providing a reference for climate variables and their expected impacts. By 2071–2100, increases in temperature and growing degree days, along with reduced summer water balance, are expected to intensify disturbances such as fires and pest outbreaks. Boreal species like balsam fir and black spruce are projected to decline, while temperate deciduous species such as red maple and American beech are expected to expand. Adaptive silviculture strategies: assisted migration, thinning, and innovative harvest methods, are discussed to enhance forest resilience.

The second chapter presents a method for integrating climate-sensitive yield tables and transition rules into strategic planning using the PICUS stand model and the Woodstock landscape model. A rotation-age–based planning approach was used. Simulations under different climate scenarios show a shift toward warm-adapted species, declines in cold-adapted species, and reduced merchantable wood volume, posing economic and wood supply risks. This underscores the need to integrate climate change into forest planning to avoid overharvest and ensure long-term resource availability.

The third study assesses climate change impacts on treatment scheduling, wood supply, economic returns, and harvesting practices. Climate-sensitive yield tables and transition rules were developed for two partial-cutting silvicultural interventions. Using linear programming in Woodstock, treatment schedules were optimized to maximize stumpage revenue under three climate scenarios. Clear-cutting remained dominant, but high- and low-retention harvesting increased under warming. A major shift from conifer to deciduous dominance occurred, yet partial cutting mitigated revenue losses. This highlights the value of a diverse, climate-adapted silvicultural toolbox to help buffer negative climate impacts on forest management.