Browsing by Author "Daigle, Bethany"
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Item College and university graduate retention in New Brunswick: 2010 - 2018(2021-03) McDonald, Ted; Bhuiyan, Erfan; Daigle, Bethany; Miah, PabloNew Brunswick (NB) invests substantially in educating post-secondary students. When qualified graduates leave the province, much of that investment is lost, as they take their human capital (and potential earnings) with them when they relocate. Understanding what kinds of graduates are leaving and what kinds of graduates are staying can help inform targeted policies that encourage graduates to stay and contribute to the local economy, and estimating graduate retention rates can help determine if NB is seeing a high or low return on its investments. The objective of this report is to present a statistical description of individuals who have graduated from the following publicly funded colleges and universities in NB*: The University of New Brunswick (UNB) Université de Moncton (UdeM) Mount Allison University (MTA) St. Thomas University (STU) New Brunswick Community College (NBCC) Collège communautaire du Nouveau-Brunswick (CCNB) The New Brunswick College of Craft and Design (NBCCD) *The Maritime College of Forest Technology is excluded from this study.Item Lifting restrictions for COVID-19: Implications for New Brunswick(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2020-04-26) McDonald, Ted; Boco, Eton; Christensen, Eva; Daigle, Bethany; Somayaji, Chandy; Bhuiyan, Erfan; McRae, SarahThe purpose of this rapid review (Part 2 in a 2-part series) is to examine the literature on the various steps being taken around the world to lift restrictions implemented to suppress the spread of COVID-19 – including social restrictions, such as those related to physical distancing, and economic restrictions, such as those affecting the closure of non-essential stores and other businesses. We find that some restrictions, such the closure of schools and non-essential stores and services, are more commonly among the first to be lifted – though this is done so gradually and with accompanying physical distancing and hygiene requirements. Countries around the world have also begun to ease and/or recommend measures impacting travel, recreation, and sectors of the workforce. While it is too soon to observe the outcomes for many of these measures, modelling studies and observations of case trajectories in Asia suggest a COVID-19 resurgence is likely to occur as restrictions are eased – but if appropriate measures are in place to monitor further infection and reinstate intermittent restrictions, future resurgence could be managed. The information presented herein on the experiences of other locations ahead of New Brunswick in their COVID trajectories and in the process of reopening their economies can provide valuable insights into the steps this province could take when lifting its own restrictions in future. For Part 2 of this report, we propose to supplement the current work with a qualitative review of the outcomes of easing restrictions, as well as quantitative metrics on the indicators leading up to lifting restrictions – both of which will be used to guide a discussion of implications for scaling back COVID-19 restrictions in New BrunswickItem L’utilisation des bibliothèques publiques au Nouveau-Brunswick, de 2010 à 2018(l’Institut de recherche, de données et de formation du Nouveau-Brunswick, 2019) Emery, Herb; Daigle, Bethany; McDonald, TedItem NB-IRDT chronic obstructive pulmonary disease research program – Report one: Investigation of Statistics Canada public use microdata files(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2020) McDonald, Ted; Rogers, Kyle; Daigle, Bethany; Ziv, AnatThis report examines the utility of existing and easy-to-access data in the form of Statistics Canada’s Canadian Community Health Survey public use microdata files (CCHS PUMF). These data sources allow for easy presentation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) at the New Brunswick level, as well as partial presentation at the health zone level. Because the CCHS is an annual national product, we will be able to continually update the data presented herein following the trends over time and can compare NB values against other Canadian jurisdictions for benchmarking. Further, the CCHS PUMF data include a variety of items for examination rarely available in administrative data sources—items like: Blood Pressure Body Mass Index Difficulty with Activities Education Life Stress Needed Help with Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Physical Inactivity Self-Perceived Health Type of Smoker Working Status However, while the breadth of data available via the CCHS PUMF is impressive and allows insights into a variety of topics, these data lack depth. Statistics Canada removes identifying information from the CCHS PUMF data before release. As such, we cannot link CCHS data to other data sources such as census responses, records of health service use, etc. Further, the survey nature of the CCHS leads to sample size issues that present difficulties when there is interest in presenting values at smaller geographies—in many cases, it simply isn’t possible. Finally, due to the nature of self-reporting, the CCHS data run the risk of biases typically associated with survey data (such as social desirability bias), potentially leading to lower counts of COPD cases when self-report estimates are compared to administrative data case identification estimates. For example, research that linked self-report data to administrative data in Ontario demonstrated this trend in several chronic health conditions (including COPD1), a finding consistent with research from the US. The self-report data contained in the CCHS PUMF may be imperfect, but they nonetheless represent one avenue for obtaining useful insights into COPD in New Brunswick. Alongside the Public Health Agency of Canada’s administrative data approach in the Canadian Chronic Disease Surveillance System, and NB-CHIP, they will help us develop better understanding of COPD in New Brunswick. These insights will ultimately allow the New Brunswick health system and care providers to provide improved care to New Brunswickers living with COPD while simultaneously striving to prevent future cases of COPD.Item Rapid response report on COVID-19 in New Brunswick: April 14, 2020(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2020-04-14) Bhuiyan, Erfan Mahmood; Christensen, Eva; Daigle, Bethany; Magalhaes, Sandra; McDonald, Ted; Miah, Pablo; Somayaji, ChandyThis series of reports provides successive updates of projections that the trajectory of COVID-19 cases could follow in New Brunswick based on the experiences of other countries and regions who experienced initial COVID-19 infections earlier than NB. Specifically, these projections estimate what NB’s incident cases, hospitalizations and mortality might be if our province experienced disease trajectories similar to a range of comparison countries and regions, for both 10-day forward and peak infection scenarios. By updating our estimates in subsequent reports as more data become available, we are able to examine how NB is actually doing relative to those scenarios and use the updated data to revise our forecasts accordingly.Item Rapid response report on COVID-19 in New Brunswick: April 27, 2020(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2020-04-27) Bhuiyan, Erfan Mahmood; Christensen, Eva; Daigle, Bethany; Magalhaes, Sandra; McDonald, Ted; Miah, Pablo; Somayaji, ChandyThis series of reports provides successive updates of projections that the trajectory of COVID-19 cases could follow in New Brunswick based on the experiences of other countries and regions who experienced initial COVID-19 infections earlier than NB. Specifically, these projections estimate what NB’s incident cases, hospitalizations and mortality might be if our province experienced disease trajectories similar to a range of comparison countries and regions, for both 10-day forward and peak infection scenarios. By updating our estimates in subsequent reports as more data become available, we are able to examine how NB is actually doing relative to those scenarios and use the updated data to revise our forecasts accordingly.Item Rapid response report on COVID-19 in New Brunswick: March 31, 2020(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2020-03-31) Bhuiyan, Erfan Mahmood; Christensen, Eva; Daigle, Bethany; Magalhaes, Sandra; McDonald, Ted; Miah, Pablo; Somayaji, ChandyThis series of reports provides successive updates of projections that the trajectory of COVID-19 cases could follow in New Brunswick based on the experiences of other countries and regions who experienced initial COVID-19 infections earlier than NB. Specifically, these projections estimate what NB’s incident cases, hospitalizations and mortality might be if our province experienced disease trajectories similar to a range of comparison countries and regions, for both 10-day forward and peak infection scenarios. By updating our estimates in subsequent reports as more data become available, we are able to examine how NB is actually doing relative to those scenarios and use the updated data to revise our forecasts accordingly.Item Rapid response report on dedicated resources for COVID-19: April 8, 2020(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2020-04-08) Christensen, Eva; Daigle, Bethany; McDonald, Ted; Somayaji, ChandyAs the COVID-19 pandemic progresses, policy makers and health care workers are progressively trying to determine best practices for handling the disease – particularly when caring for infected patients. One key question that emerges is whether having dedicated resources (spaces and services) for COVID-19 effectively controls the spread, decreases the severity, and mitigates the cost of the disease – in terms of costs to health care, societal disruption, individual health outcomes (such as scarring of the lungs), and, ultimately, lives lost. This report presents a summary of how health systems in various countries have been separating healthcare resources during pandemic medical management. This includes measures aimed at separation of COVID-19 and non-COVID patient resources, both in terms of separate physical structures for dedicated COVID care and of separation within existing structures, as well as policies aimed at preventing overlap and exposure between point sources of care for medical personnel.Item Rapid response report on lifting restrictions for COVID-19(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2020-04-16) McDonald, Ted; Boco, Eton; Christensen, Eva; Daigle, Bethany; Somayaji, Chandy; Bhuiyan, Erfan; MacRae, SarahThe purpose of this rapid review (Part 1 in a 2-part series) is to examine the literature on the various steps being taken around the world to lift restrictions implemented to suppress the spread of COVID-19 – including social restrictions, such as those related to physical distancing, and economic restrictions, such as those affecting the closure of non-essential stores and other businesses. We find that some restrictions, such the closure of schools and non-essential stores and services, are more commonly among the first to be lifted – though this is done so gradually and with accompanying physical distancing and hygiene requirements. Countries around the world have also begun to ease and/or recommend measures impacting travel, recreation, and sectors of the workforce. While it is too soon to observe the outcomes for many of these measures, modelling studies and observations of case trajectories in Asia suggest a COVID-19 resurgence is likely to occur as restrictions are eased – but if appropriate measures are in place to monitor further infection and reinstate intermittent restrictions, future resurgence could be managed. The information presented herein on the experiences of other locations ahead of New Brunswick in their COVID trajectories and in the process of reopening their economies can provide valuable insights into the steps this province could take when lifting its own restrictions in future. For Part 2 of this report, we propose to supplement the current work with a qualitative review of the outcomes of easing restrictions, as well as quantitative metrics on the indicators leading up to lifting restrictions – both of which will be used to guide a discussion of implications for scaling back COVID-19 restrictions in New BrunswickItem Rapport d’intervention rapide concernant la COVID-19 au Nouveau-Brunswick : Le 31 mars 2020(l’Institut de recherche, de données et de formation du Nouveau-Brunswick, 2020-03-31) Bhuiyan, Erfan Mahmood; Christensen, Eva; Daigle, Bethany; Magalhaes, Sandra; McDonald, Ted; Miah, Pablo; Somayaji, ChandyItem Rapport récapitulatif: L’utilisation des bibliothèques publiques au Nouveau-Brunswick, de 2010 à 2018(l’Institut de recherche, de données et de formation du Nouveau-Brunswick, 2019) Emery, Herb; Daigle, Bethany; McDonald, TedItem Rétention des diplômés collégiaux et universitaires au Nouveau-Brunswick(l’Institut de recherche, de données et de formation du Nouveau-Brunswick, 2021-03) McDonald, Ted; Bhuiyan, Erfan; Daigle, Bethany; Miah, PabloLe Nouveau-Brunswick investit considérablement dans l’éducation des étudiants de niveau postsecondaire. Lorsque les diplômés qualifiés quittent la province, beaucoup de cet investissement est perdu, pendant qu’ils apportent avec eux le capital humain et (les gains potentiels) lorsqu’ils se réinstallent. Comprendre quelles sortes de diplômés partent et quelles sortes de diplômés restent, cela peut éclairer les politiques ciblées qui encouragent les diplômés à rester et à contribuer à l’économie locale. De plus, l’estimation des taux de rétention des diplômés peut permettre de déterminer si le N.-B. voit un rendement élevé ou faible de ses investissements. L’objectif du rapport est de présenter une description statistique des personnes qui ont obtenu un diplôme dans les collèges et les universités publics au Nouveau-Brunswick1 : • L’Université du Nouveau-Brunswick (UNB) • L’Université de Moncton (UdeM) • L’Université Mount Allison (MTA) • L’Université St. Thomas (STU) • Le New Brunswick Community College (NBCC) • Le Collège communautaire du Nouveau-Brunswick (CCNB) • Le New Brunswick College of Craft and Design (NBCCD) *Le Collège de technologie forestière est exclus de l’étude.Item Small-area population forecasts for New Brunswick with 2016 Census Data: Cohort-component model(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2018) Peters, Paul; Balzer, Andy; Daigle, BethanyWhat will the population of New Brunswick look like in the coming years? New Brunswick has one of Canada’s fastest aging populations and lowest levels of in-migration, along with declining fertility rates. A shrinking population presents a challenge to economic growth and has significant implications for other factors, such as the province’s healthcare system, tax base, and social support. Thus, population decline in New Brunswick has been a salient political concern for many years now. Researchers at the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) have been analyzing provincial population trends for a number of years. Earlier reports suggested the province’s population would continue to shift due to inter-provincial outmigration, with growth concentrated in cities through rural to urban migration. More recent reports using newly available 2016 Census data update the population statistics, accounting for the fact that New Brunswick experienced an overall population decline from 2011 to 2016. In these reassessments of population forecasts for small areas in New Brunswick, results are more negative than those of the 2017 reports – possibly due to data reflecting the sluggish provincial economy following the 2008 recession. The most current population forecasts suggest net migration is the main driver of population growth; and while the cities of Moncton and Fredericton are predicted to see population increases, the remaining areas in New Brunswick will arguably see either population decline or stagnation. The labour force is likely to follow the same trends as the general population. The authors argue that these trends could reflect a cyclical population downturn that will eventually reverse itself with renewed population growth; or they could indicate a future trend of population decline. Ongoing research may be able to tell.Item Small-area population forecasts for New Brunswick with 2016 Census Data: Simplified model report(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2018) Peters, Paul; Balzer, Andy; Daigle, BethanyWhat will the population of New Brunswick look like in the coming years? New Brunswick has one of Canada’s fastest aging populations and lowest levels of in-migration, along with declining fertility rates. A shrinking population presents a challenge to economic growth and has significant implications for other factors, such as the province’s healthcare system, tax base, and social support. Thus, population decline in New Brunswick has been a salient political concern for many years now. Researchers at the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) have been analyzing provincial population trends for a number of years. Earlier reports suggested the province’s population would continue to shift due to inter-provincial outmigration, with growth concentrated in cities through rural to urban migration. More recent reports using newly available 2016 Census data update the population statistics, accounting for the fact that New Brunswick experienced an overall population decline from 2011 to 2016. In these reassessments of population forecasts for small areas in New Brunswick, results are more negative than those of the 2017 reports – possibly due to data reflecting the sluggish provincial economy following the 2008 recession. The most current population forecasts suggest net migration is the main driver of population growth; and while the cities of Moncton and Fredericton are predicted to see population increases, the remaining areas in New Brunswick will arguably see either population decline or stagnation. The labour force is likely to follow the same trends as the general population. The authors argue that these trends could reflect a cyclical population downturn that will eventually reverse itself with renewed population growth; or they could indicate a future trend of population decline. Ongoing research may be able to tell.Item Summary Report: The use of public libraries in New Brunswick, 2010-2018(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2019) Emery, Herb; Daigle, Bethany; McDonald, TedCan public libraries remain relevant in an era of lightning-fast Internet access, Kindle e-books, and Amazon Prime’s 2-day book deliveries? Most New Brunswickers admit to loving their public libraries, but how many actually use them? Studies show that public libraries provide valuable social capital within their communities. They bring people together, create trust, provide information, and contribute to overall communal well-being. Yet, libraries are increasingly pressured to demonstrate their value and their usefulness to the public. In an attempt to demonstrate library value, researchers at the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) examined the use of public libraries in NB from 2010 to 2018 by looking at how many library cards are being used and how many items are being checked out. Results show that active borrowers’ demand for NB public libraries grew by 8% from 2010-2018. Since 2015, the number of active borrowers has been increasing in the South of the province (13%), especially in Moncton, Saint John, and Fredericton (19%). The authors find this positive trend is driven by population growth in the South, and that demand for libraries in the North remains constant, despite slow population growth and a suffering economy. Disruptions to library services (i.e., closure, renovations) did not lower demand for library services. Instead, library use increased, especially between 2015 and 2016, likely as a result of policy changes, including (i) more flexible ways of providing library cards, (ii) the elimination of overdue fees for children, and (iii) the opening all public libraries on Saturdays (and some on Sundays). Overall, the growth and steady demand for Public Library services in NB is remarkable, given the technological and social changes taking place throughout the province.Item Tabagisme et insécurité alimentaire au Nouveau-Brunswick(l’Institut de recherche, de données et de formation du Nouveau-Brunswick, 2019) Emery, Herb; Tarasuk, Valerie; Guo, Xiaolin; Daigle, Bethany; Dutton, Daniel; Leonard, Philip; McDonald, TedItem The impact of official bilingualism on the geographic mobility of New Brunswickers: Evidence from 2001 to 2016(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2019) Emery, J. C. Herbert; Wang, Li; Daigle, BethanyAre bilingual New Brunswickers more or less likely to move? New Brunswick is both the only bilingual province in Canada and the province with the highest rates of outmigration and intra-provincial (within the province) migration. Much attention has been paid to the problem of outmigration and movement from rural to urban areas in New Brunswick, as well as to bilingualism within the province – yet, these topics are not typically associated. Is it possible that bilingualism has an impact on the movements of New Brunswickers? In this report, researchers from the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) use data from the 2006 and 2016 Census of Population and the 2011 National Household Survey to determine the effect of official bilingualism on the geographic mobility of New Brunswickers – that is, on their movements to relocate. They control for variables known to impact migration decisions, such as age, gender, marital status, and education level; and focus on the origins and destinations of New Brunswickers who move, while also examining the linguistic characteristics of New Brunswickers who remain in place. Results show that New Brunswickers with an English mother tongue are the most likely to leave New Brunswick – regardless of whether they are bilingual or unilingual. Meanwhile, acquiring a second official language is most highly associated with intra-provincial migration, suggesting that bilingualism improves labour market efficiency in New Brunswick by increasing the mobility of both Anglophones and Francophones throughout New Brunswick.Item The use of public libraries in New Brunswick, 2010-2018(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2019) Emery, Herb; Daigle, Bethany; McDonald, TedCan public libraries remain relevant in an era of lightning-fast Internet access, Kindle e-books, and Amazon Prime’s 2-day book deliveries? Most New Brunswickers admit to loving their public libraries, but how many actually use them? Studies show that public libraries provide valuable social capital within their communities. They bring people together, create trust, provide information, and contribute to overall communal well-being. Yet, libraries are increasingly pressured to demonstrate their value and their usefulness to the public. In an attempt to demonstrate library value, researchers at the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) examined the use of public libraries in NB from 2010 to 2018 by looking at how many library cards are being used and how many items are being checked out. Results show that active borrowers’ demand for NB public libraries grew by 8% from 2010-2018. Since 2015, the number of active borrowers has been increasing in the South of the province (13%), especially in Moncton, Saint John, and Fredericton (19%). The authors find this positive trend is driven by population growth in the South, and that demand for libraries in the North remains constant, despite slow population growth and a suffering economy. Disruptions to library services (i.e., closure, renovations) did not lower demand for library services. Instead, library use increased, especially between 2015 and 2016, likely as a result of policy changes, including (i) more flexible ways of providing library cards, (ii) the elimination of overdue fees for children, and (iii) the opening all public libraries on Saturdays (and some on Sundays). Overall, the growth and steady demand for Public Library services in NB is remarkable, given the technological and social changes taking place throughout the province.Item Tobacco use and food insecurity in New Brunswick(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2019) Emery, Herb; Tarasuk, Valerie; Guo, Xiaolin; Daigle, Bethany; Dutton, Daniel; Leonard, Philip; McDonald, TedIs smoking tobacco associated with higher rates of food insecurity? Food insecurity refers to a range of experiences – from concerns about running out of food before having enough money to buy more to not eating for a whole day due to a lack of food and money for food. Food insecurity is most prevalent in households with lower incomes, and food insecure families can find themselves in difficult situations in which they have to decide whether to “heat or eat.” In this report, researchers from the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT), the University of New Brunswick, and the University of Toronto examine the relationship between smoking and food insecurity to see if families are also faced with the decision to either “smoke or eat.” Using 2007-2017 data from the Canadian Community Health Survey this report asks whether smoking raises the risk of being food insecure, or smoking has no cause effect on food insecurity due to shared characteristics between smokers and food insecure households. The results show that households with smokers are more likely to be food insecure, though, food insecurity has a stronger relationship with poor health and well-being than tobacco use. Apart from the impact of smoking on food insecurity, this report also finds that individuals most likely to be food insecure are families with younger respondents, females, individuals with low levels of education, renters, urban dwellers, Aboriginals, and recent immigrants. The authors recommend a focus on implementing programs such as counselling, rather than higher taxation on cigarettes, as strategies to decrease tobacco use, as the latter could reduce the purchasing power of families’ incomes, including income available for food.Item Using administrative and survey data to estimate returns to higher education in Canada(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2019) McDonald, Ted; Daigle, Bethany; Miah, PabloPost-secondary education is valuable – but how should we measure that value? Education is commonly described as a valuable asset: It benefits the individuals who attain it, and it benefits society at large. Unsurprisingly, research almost exclusively finds that investment in post-secondary education produces positive returns. However, despite widespread agreement on this fact, there is no consensus on the best methods for reliably calculating these returns. In this report, researchers at the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) analyze the existing literature and available datasets to compile a list of recommendations to identify the most accurate and effective methods for calculating the returns to post-secondary education. In the short term, the authors recommend measuring the value of post-secondary education by analyzing the datasets linked through Statistics Canada’s Education and Labour Market Longitudinal Platform (ELMLP): The Postsecondary Student Information System (PSIS), the Registered Apprenticeship Information System (RAIS), and T1 Family File tax records. By using these data sets to group earnings cohorts according to observable characteristics and by using tax records to estimate individuals’ participation (or non-participation) in post-secondary education, researchers can create control groups against which to compare the earnings of groups with varying levels of education. In the long term, the authors believe the most accurate estimations of the return to post-secondary education in Canada can be obtained by expanding the information available through the ELMLP to include additional data from the Canadian Census, the Longitudinal Administrative Databank (LAD), the Longitudinal and International Study of Adults (LISA), the General Social Survey (GSS), the Programme for the International Assessment of Adult competencies (PIAAC), the Longitudinal Immigration Database (IMDB) and others.