UNB Scholar Research Repository :: Browsing by Author "Emery, Herb"

Browsing by Author "Emery, Herb"

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A study on the influencing factors of CPI bias in different groups in Canada
(University of New Brunswick, 2019) Wang, Haoyu; Emery, Herb
The official CPI may mismeasure the cost of living for different groups of people. This paper investigates the factors that might explain the size of the CPI bias measured by Emery and Guo (2019) for the years 1999 to 2015. We apply the partial least squares method (PLS) estimates of CPI bias for 10 provinces and 14 sub-groups to determine which subcomponents of the CPI are influential on the CPI bias. The result shows that gasoline, fuel and clothing are important factors affecting the CPI bias of each group. However, when we group the samples in 2010 as the cutoff point, this effect is more significant in the later stage, while the influence factors of each group in the early stage have a large inter-group difference and the exchange rate has an important impact on the CPI bias of each group, especially in the later stage.
Apprenticeship programs in the Atlantic provinces: Program characteristics, apprentice mobility and earnings
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2017) Emery, Herb; McDonald, Ted; Balcom, Andrew
This report presents descriptive statistics on various dimensions of apprenticeship training in the Atlantic provinces. The report is based on statistics generated by Statistics Canada from a complex individual-level longitudinal dataset linking data from multiple sources including the Registered Apprenticeship Information System, T1 tax files and T4 statements of earnings over the period 2008-2013 inclusive. The longitudinal nature of the data allow mobility to be evaluated, including comparisons of province of study, province of residence and province of work before, during and after apprenticeship training. The report considers three dimensions of apprenticeships: characteristics of participants including demographic characteristics, field of study, and status in the program; mobility of apprentices, comparing province of study with province of employment and province of residence while enrolled and after the program is either completed or discontinued; and earnings of those in the program and those who completed or discontinued the program, with a focus on differences in earnings for movers compared to non-movers. For all three dimensions, results are compared across individuals enrolled in apprenticeship programs in each of the Atlantic provinces.
Breathe: A cost-effectiveness evaluation of breath-based lung cancer screenings
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2022-09) Emery, Herb; Cameron, Jillian; Dutton, Daniel J.; Singh, Paramdeep; Chan, Alvin; McDonald, Ted
Current incidence rates of lung cancer in the United States show that per 100,000 population, lung cancer will occur in 49 women and 60 men. Nearly half a million individuals in the United States were diagnosed with lung cancer between 2013 and 2017, and Canadian prevalence rates are similar: nearly 30,000 people are diagnosed with lung cancer each year. Mortality due to lung cancer is significant as well: approximately 130,000 people in the US and 21,000 people in Canada die annually due to lung cancer. Costs for treatment are also substantial, totaling about $2 billion per year in Canada, or approximately $70,000 per case. The high cost per case of cancer arises from many factors, central among them the advanced stage at diagnosis of many tumors leading to expensive therapies and treatments, costs for formal and informal caregivers, and life-years lost. The incidence and high mortality and costs associated with lung cancer show that lowering both the percentage of people receiving lung cancer diagnoses and the costs of treating lung cancer are important issues for our healthcare systems.
Descriptive analysis of manufacturing employment at the sub-provincial level in New Brunswick: 2010-2020
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2022-01) Emery, Herb; Mokhtar, Rawia; Wang, Li
There is a narrative in New Brunswick that the province is falling further and further behind the rest of Canada in terms of economic and population growth, and “catching up” is a nearly impossible task to accomplish. Fortunately, this narrative is not entirely true. New Brunswick (NB) aims – like all provinces – to obtain levels of growth equal to or surpassing the national average. It struggles in certain areas, such as growing its working-age population. However, research is often so focused on the province’s struggles and areas of greatest need that its leading sectors sometimes fade into the background. If we are to promote progress and prosperity in the province, there is a need to not only examine our weaknesses but also to better understand our strengths. The more we know about NB’s successes, the more likely we are to replicate them, and to solve any challenges that might be holding them back. In this report, we aim to do just that by examining one of NB’s greatest strengths: its manufacturing sector. Manufacturing, which refers to the physical or chemical transformation of materials or substances into new products (Government of Canada, 2021), is key to NB’s economic growth. Our manufacturing sector leads the province in exports and accounts for nearly 10% of total employment. In other words, nearly 1 in every 10 employed New Brunswicker works in manufacturing.
Immigrant income and labour market outcomes: 2006 - 2015 cohorts
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2021-06) Boco, Eton; Emery, Herb; McDonald, Ted; Mokhtar, Rawia
One of the central goals for the province of New Brunswick (NB) is to boost economic development by increasing labour market participation, and immigration is key to this plan. NB is faced with many demographic challenges, including an aging population, slow population growth, and the out-migration of its younger workers. All these issues have a negative impact on the provincial economy, which in turn is faced with the fiscal challenges of a shrinking tax-base and decreasing workforce. The Government of New Brunswick (GNB) has implemented many immigration programs, all with the expectation that immigrants will play a vital role in remedying these challenges while benefitting from participation in and contribution to the culture and labour market of NB. However, while NB has successfully welcomed a growing number of immigrants over time, there is still a need to retain the immigrants who land here. Immigrant retention poses a challenge for the province’s goal of population growth, as a substantial number of immigrants choose to leave the NB years after landing. In 2019, the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) examined the retention of immigrants arriving through NB’s Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) – one of the many immigration streams implemented by GNB to boost immigration in NB. Researchers found that just about half of PNP immigrants destined for NB were still living in the province five years after arriving. These findings raise further questions, such as, “Who decides to stay? Who decides to leave? And what factors influence these decisions?” Understanding the experiences of immigrants residing in NB may help the province address challenges related to immigrant retention, and since there is a well-established link between mobility and economic opportunity, focusing on the economic experiences of immigrants in NB may shed light on a correlation between experiences and retention. To this end, this report examines the economic outcomes and retention rates of immigrants in NB to investigate trends and determinants of income and retention. With the goal of contributing to evidence-based assessments of provincial immigration policies and efforts, it presents detailed descriptive and empirical evidence on the evolution of immigrant retention and immigrants’ post-landing labour market experiences. This report has five aims: To show changes in the economic and demographic profiles of NB immigrants over time To show how NB’s major cities – Moncton, Saint John, and Fredericton – are doing at retaining immigrants destined for them To show which characteristics are associated with immigrants performing better (i.e., earning more) in the NB labour market To consider whether those with pre-admission time spent in NB on a work or study permit or with asylum claims have an advantage over those who had none before landing as permanent residents To show correlations, if any, between retention and economic success in the form of employment income for immigrants in NB
Labour shortages in the Canadian transportation sector: New evidence from microdata
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2021-11) Emery, Herb; Boco , Eton; Wang, Li; Mokhtar, Rawia
This report investigates concerns over perceived labour shortages in Canadian Transportation industries and occupations with individual-level data from the 2010-2020 Labour Force Surveys and the 2006 and 2016 Canadian Census cycles. Using confidential microdata available in the Statistics Canada Research Data Centre allowed us to analyze Transportation industries and occupations in more detail than is currently possible with publicly available data.
L’utilisation des bibliothèques publiques au Nouveau-Brunswick, de 2010 à 2018
(l’Institut de recherche, de données et de formation du Nouveau-Brunswick, 2019) Emery, Herb; Daigle, Bethany; McDonald, Ted
Post-graduation earnings of NBCC graduates: 2015 to 2017 graduate cohorts
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2023-06) Boco, Eton; Emery, Herb; McDonald, Ted
This report investigates the post-secondary decisions and outcomes of New Brunswick Community College (NBCC) graduates. The presence of a post-secondary institution can be a valuable contributor to the economy of the region in which it is located. The expenditures and employment of post-secondary institutions directly contribute to local GDP, while the graduates contribute to the growth of the supply of skilled labour available to the regional economy. Put together, these play a role in a region’s economic growth. NBCC is an integral part of New Brunswick (NB), and, once graduated, NBCC students who choose to remain local become an important element in workforce development. Therefore, studying these graduates’ outcomes is not only beneficial to NBCC for designing in-house policies for students but also to the province in determining how to better serve such an important demographic. This study reports on the post-graduation median earnings of NBCC graduates by their demographic and background characteristics. It looks at the median earnings of graduates 1, 2, and 3 years after graduation.
Post-secondary graduates' province of study post-graduation residence in New Brunswick and labour market outcomes (2011-2016)
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2023-02) Boco, Eton; Emery, Herb; McDonald, Ted
As New Brunswick (NB) continues to invest in the retention and attraction of university and college graduates, it is important to know what proportion of its residents who leave for post-secondary studies are returning to the province and contributing to the local economy. Based on an analysis of registrar data from Canadian post-secondary institutions linked with tax data from T1 tax returns, this report sets out the mobility and earnings patterns of NB residents who leave the province for their post-secondary studies, comparing them to residents who choose to stay and study in NB. Counts, return rates, and median incomes after graduation are presented by gender, field of study, level of study, and region of study for the 2011 to 2016 tax years.
Public facility closure and its impact on population mobility in New Brunswick
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2022-05) Emery, Herb; McDonald, Ted; Miah, Pablo
In popular culture, one phrase is often used to manifest success: “If you build it, they will come.” While this idea exudes positivity and the power of hard work, we have to question its accuracy in terms of population research. In a province like New Brunswick, which is heavily invested in population growth and recruitment, does building public facilities and increasing public services actually prompt people to come and stay? And, conversely, does closing public facilities or reducing services prompt them to leave? Answering these questions could be key to population recruitment and retention strategies, which are crucial to the future success of our economy, labour market, and social culture. Across NB, public facilities like schools and hospitals provide valuable services to the population, taking on the role of “public assets.” In this report, we investigate the link between these public assets and population mobility in the province, asking whether opening and closing facilities, and changing service offerings, has any effect on New Brunswickers’ mobility decisions. More specifically, we look at the population mobility patterns in the neighbourhoods (i.e., “dissemination areas”1) near these facilities before and after such changes. To do so, this study uses the Citizen Database (Medicare Registry) as the primary dataset to track population movement and annual population counts in a dissemination area (DA) over the period 2002-2018. Data identifying active and closed schools in the province (2000-2018) is provided by the Department of Education and Early Childhood Development (EECD), and data on the status of hospitals in NB is obtained from the province’s Annual Reports of Hospital Services (2003-2015). Distance to the nearest school (active/closed) and hospital (active/closed) is measured for each of the province’s DAs in the Citizen Database to estimate the impact of public facility closure on population change.
Rapport récapitulatif: L’utilisation des bibliothèques publiques au Nouveau-Brunswick, de 2010 à 2018
(l’Institut de recherche, de données et de formation du Nouveau-Brunswick, 2019) Emery, Herb; Daigle, Bethany; McDonald, Ted
Retention and labour market outcomes of registered apprentices in New Brunswick: 2009 to 2017
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2021-09) Boco, Eton; Emery, Herb; Mokhtar, Rawia
As the second phase of a two-part analysis looking at retention rates and labour market outcomes of post-secondary graduates in New Brunswick (NB), this report examines the trends, retention, and incomes of those who receive apprenticeship certificates in the province. Using the Canada Research Data Centre Network’s Education and Labour Market Longitudinal Platform (ELMLP), it analyzes cohorts of trade certificate holders from 2009 to 2017. Highlight of Findings - Roughly 11,000 trades certificates were granted in NB between 2009 and 2019, the majority of which went to males rather than females, apprentices rather than trade qualifiers, and individuals in Red Seal trades rather than non-Red Seal trades. - Compared to 2009, there were 15% more registrations and 8% more certificates granted in 2019. Roughly 60% of these are in one of the following major trade groups: Automotive service technician, Plumber/Pipefitter/Steamfitter, Carpenter, Welder, or Electrician. Two of these trades, Automotive service technician and Plumber/Pipefitter/Steamfitter, have compulsory certification in NB. - The largest increase in registrations was among Heavy duty equipment mechanics (86%), while the largest increase in certifications was in the Exterior finishing (300%) trade group. - Retention is higher among completers than trade qualifiers. A possible reason behind this is the difference in requirements before a certificate is awarded to either group. - Crane operators, Iron workers, or Power line technicians are usually the highest earners (see Table 8). However, data are not always available for these groups. When they are excluded from the equation due to data limitations, the next highest earning groups are the Industrial instrumentation and Control technician trade groups. Meanwhile, income is lowest among the Cook grade group. - More years since certification does not necessarily translate into higher earnings for all trade groups. For instance, Plumbers in the 2010, 2011, and 2012 cohorts of certificate holders had a lower average income five years after certification compared to two years after certification, sometimes by as much as 18%. - The amount of money paid to later cohorts of most trade groups has declined. Two-year post-certification incomes decreased between the earliest and most recent cohorts in the study period.1 The largest decrease in income was among the Construction electrician trade group, while the largest increase in two-year post-certification median income was in the Cook trade group. - Non-Red Seal trade certificate holders earn considerably more on average than Red Seal trade certificate holders for most cohorts. The higher number of Red Seal trade certified tradespersons compared to non-Red Seal Trade tradespersons might mean more competition for jobs among the - Red Seal trades, creating less competitive wages being offered for this group. Income growth is also sometimes higher among cohorts of non-Red Seal trade certificate holders, which means smaller chances of a ‘catch-up’ for Red Seal trade certificate holders. While Red Seal endorsed certificate holders have an average two-year retention rate of 92%, non-Red Seal endorsed certificate holders have an average two-year retention rate of 65%. Red Seal endorsed certificate holders also earn less on average, sometimes by as much as 20%.
Retention and Mobility of NBCC Graduates: 2017 to 2019 Graduate Cohorts
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2023-05) Boco, Eton; Emery, Herb
Migration from rural and small-town areas to larger urban centers has been a long-standing trend, and as of July 2021, more than half of New Brunswick’s total population lives in either Moncton, Saint John, or Fredericton.This is part of a global migration trend whereby people, mostly young adults, are choosing to leave rural and small towns for larger urban areas. With a median age of 27, New Brunswick Community College (NBCC) graduates comprise the demographic most likely to make this migration decision. The locations of NBCC campuses – three in larger cities and three in small-town areas – also make its graduates a good sample to observe when investigating rural to urban migration decisions. As such, this study reports on the intra-provincial migration trends of NBCC graduates by their campus for the 2017 to 2019 graduation cohorts. Graduate mobility is discussed 1 and 3 years after graduation, showing which NBCC campus’s graduates are more or less likely to remain in or migrate from New Brunswick after graduation.
Summary Report: Apprenticeship programs in the Atlantic provinces: Program characteristics, apprentice mobility and earnings
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2017) Emery, Herb; McDonald, Ted; Balcom, Andrew
This report presents descriptive statistics on various dimensions of apprenticeship training in the Atlantic provinces. The report is based on statistics generated by Statistics Canada from a complex individual-level longitudinal dataset linking data from multiple sources including the Registered Apprenticeship Information System, T1 tax files and T4 statements of earnings over the period 2008-2013 inclusive. The longitudinal nature of the data allow mobility to be evaluated, including comparisons of province of study, province of residence and province of work before, during and after apprenticeship training. The report considers three dimensions of apprenticeships: characteristics of participants including demographic characteristics, field of study, and status in the program; mobility of apprentices, comparing province of study with province of employment and province of residence while enrolled and after the program is either completed or discontinued; and earnings of those in the program and those who completed or discontinued the program, with a focus on differences in earnings for movers compared to non-movers. For all three dimensions, results are compared across individuals enrolled in apprenticeship programs in each of the Atlantic provinces.
Summary Report: Post-graduation earnings of NBCC graduates: 2015 to 2017 graduate cohorts
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2023-06) Boco, Eton; Emery, Herb; McDonald, Ted
This report investigates the post-secondary decisions and outcomes of New Brunswick Community College (NBCC) graduates. The presence of a post-secondary institution can be a valuable contributor to the economy of the region in which it is located. The expenditures and employment of post-secondary institutions directly contribute to local GDP, while the graduates contribute to the growth of the supply of skilled labour available to the regional economy. Put together, these play a role in a region’s economic growth. NBCC is an integral part of New Brunswick (NB), and, once graduated, NBCC students who choose to remain local become an important element in workforce development. Therefore, studying these graduates’ outcomes is not only beneficial to NBCC for designing in-house policies for students but also to the province in determining how to better serve such an important demographic. This study reports on the post-graduation median earnings of NBCC graduates by their demographic and background characteristics. It looks at the median earnings of graduates 1, 2, and 3 years after graduation.
Summary Report: Post-secondary graduates' province of study post-graduation residence in New Brunswick and labour market outcomes (2011-2016)
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2023-02) Boco, Eton; Emery, Herb; McDonald, Ted
As New Brunswick (NB) continues to invest in the retention and attraction of university and college graduates, it is important to know what proportion of its residents who leave for post-secondary studies are returning to the province and contributing to the local economy. Based on an analysis of registrar data from Canadian post-secondary institutions linked with tax data from T1 tax returns, this report sets out the mobility and earnings patterns of NB residents who leave the province for their post-secondary studies, comparing them to residents who choose to stay and study in NB. Counts, return rates, and median incomes after graduation are presented by gender, field of study, level of study, and region of study for the 2011 to 2016 tax years.
Summary Report: Retention and Mobility of NBCC Graduates: 2017 to 2019 Graduate Cohorts
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2023-05) Boco, Eton; Emery, Herb
Migration from rural and small-town areas to larger urban centers has been a long-standing trend, and as of July 2021, more than half of New Brunswick’s total population lives in either Moncton, Saint John, or Fredericton.This is part of a global migration trend whereby people, mostly young adults, are choosing to leave rural and small towns for larger urban areas. With a median age of 27, New Brunswick Community College (NBCC) graduates comprise the demographic most likely to make this migration decision. The locations of NBCC campuses – three in larger cities and three in small-town areas – also make its graduates a good sample to observe when investigating rural to urban migration decisions. As such, this study reports on the intra-provincial migration trends of NBCC graduates by their campus for the 2017 to 2019 graduation cohorts. Graduate mobility is discussed 1 and 3 years after graduation, showing which NBCC campus’s graduates are more or less likely to remain in or migrate from New Brunswick after graduation.
Summary Report: Temporary residents in New Brunswick and their transition to permanent residency
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2017) Emery, Herb; McDonald, Ted; Balcom, Andrew
How well does New Brunswick attract Temporary Residents? And how many become Permanent Residents? With a declining population and slow economic growth, New Brunswick is seeking to boost growth in both areas by increasing the number of immigrants settling in the province. Research from Statistics Canada suggests that Temporary Foreign Workers are less likely to settle in the Atlantic provinces than in the rest of Canada. However, this research does not examine provincial variations in the attraction of Temporary Residents and Foreign Workers and transition to Permanent Residency in the Atlantic region. Knowing the characteristics and transition rates of Temporary Residents would allow the New Brunswick government to better identify gaps and opportunities to improve immigration policies. In this report, researchers from the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) use data from the Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) database to describe the characteristics of Temporary Residents and Temporary Foreign Workers in New Brunswick as well as retention rates and the rate of transitions to Permanent Resident status. Results show that from 2000 to 2013, the number of Temporary Residents in New Brunswick has been increasing at the same rate as that of Canada. However, if one considers the the population size of NB alongside the proportion of immigrants in New Brunswick, it becomes apparent that the number of Temporary Residents in New Brunswick is underrepresented, with New Brunswick seemingly holding less attraction for them. Yet, while New Brunswick appears to be less attractive to Temporary Residents than the other Atlantic provinces it also has a higher rate of transition to Permanent Residency than the Canadian rate. Similarly, Permanent Residents who stay in New Brunswick for one year after transitioning show fairly persistent retention rates. These results suggest that the New Brunswick labour market may have the capacity to absorb more Permanent Residents because it does not receive a proportion of Temporary Residents equal to its proportion of the Atlantic population.
Summary Report: The economic impacts of migrating from New Brunswick to Alberta/Saskatchewan and return to New Brunswick
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2017) Emery, Herb; McDonald, Ted; Morissette, René
Are New Brunswickers who leave the province for work any better off if/when they return? For many years now, large numbers of young, working-age New Brunswickers have migrated to other provinces for work. While the most popular Canadian destinations for New Brunswickers in the past were Ontario, Nova Scotia, and Quebec, this has changed over the past 20 years, with New Brunswickers migrating more frequently to Alberta and Saskatchewan – likely due to growth and employment opportunities in the oil and gas industry. There is a general assumption that New Brunswickers who leave the province to work elsewhere are better off when they return. But does the evidence suggest this is true? To answer this question, researchers at the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) use Statistics Canada tax-filer data to compare the characteristics and earnings of New Brunswickers who migrate Alberta/Saskatchewan and then return (i.e., “Returners”) against those of - NB workers who migrate and remain in AB/SK (“Permanent Migrants”) - NB workers who remained in NB. (“Stayers”) and - NB workers who migrate to Alberta/Saskatchewan and then return ("returners") Results show that Returners and Permanent Migrants experienced equally advantageous earnings gains from migrating to AB/SK. There are many possibilities why this is the case. It is possible that Returners are penalized by diminished opportunities. Perhaps they are less motivated to work for lower earnings. Maybe they accumulated enough savings to work fewer hours. These findings suggest that policies aiming to boost economic growth through increased GDP, immigration, and return migration in New Brunswick should focus on increasing labour demand, rather than marketable human capital.
Summary Report: The use of public libraries in New Brunswick, 2010-2018
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2019) Emery, Herb; Daigle, Bethany; McDonald, Ted
Can public libraries remain relevant in an era of lightning-fast Internet access, Kindle e-books, and Amazon Prime’s 2-day book deliveries? Most New Brunswickers admit to loving their public libraries, but how many actually use them? Studies show that public libraries provide valuable social capital within their communities. They bring people together, create trust, provide information, and contribute to overall communal well-being. Yet, libraries are increasingly pressured to demonstrate their value and their usefulness to the public. In an attempt to demonstrate library value, researchers at the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) examined the use of public libraries in NB from 2010 to 2018 by looking at how many library cards are being used and how many items are being checked out. Results show that active borrowers’ demand for NB public libraries grew by 8% from 2010-2018. Since 2015, the number of active borrowers has been increasing in the South of the province (13%), especially in Moncton, Saint John, and Fredericton (19%). The authors find this positive trend is driven by population growth in the South, and that demand for libraries in the North remains constant, despite slow population growth and a suffering economy. Disruptions to library services (i.e., closure, renovations) did not lower demand for library services. Instead, library use increased, especially between 2015 and 2016, likely as a result of policy changes, including (i) more flexible ways of providing library cards, (ii) the elimination of overdue fees for children, and (iii) the opening all public libraries on Saturdays (and some on Sundays). Overall, the growth and steady demand for Public Library services in NB is remarkable, given the technological and social changes taking place throughout the province.

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