Browsing by Author "Lantz, Van A."

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    Economic impact of climate change altering the structure of New Brunswick’s and Québec’s Forest: A PICUS-LANDIS CGE analysis
    (University of New Brunswick, 2023-04) McMonagle, Galen Robert James; Lantz, Van A.
    Climate change and harvesting is expected to alter the structure of forests in Canada, as individual tree species will react differently to regional changes in environmental characteristics. While numerous studies have employed models to assess the ecological and/or economic impacts of such changes on forests, there is need to further refine such analyses. This thesis contributes to the literature by coupling an ecological (PICUS-LANDIS II) modeling framework with an economic (CGE) model to better account for the economic impact associated with changes in forest stand and landscape-level dynamics. To demonstrate the contributions, this thesis considers two case-study regions - New Brunswick, and Québec. The thesis finds that a reduction in softwood supply due to either climate change or harvesting activities results in an economic loss at both the macro and sectoral level. The negative impact on softwood species outweighs the economic benefit associated with climate change positively impacting hardwood species.
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    Estimating softwood lumber export response in Canadian provinces to six trade restriction periods between Canada and the U.S.
    (University of New Brunswick, 2022-09) Lyu, Wei; Lantz, Van A.
    The Canada-US softwood lumber dispute is one of the longest trade disputes to exist between the two countries. The US has imposed numerous trade restrictions against Canadian softwood lumber exports. Several studies have examined the impacts of these restrictions along with other factors that can affect these exports. In this study, I explore the impacts of a broad set of softwood lumber trade restrictions/agreements on exports from Canadian provinces, and specifically estimate the degree of trade diversion from provinces named under the restrictions/agreements to non-named provinces. To do so, I use a modified gravity model developed by Gulati & Malhotra (2006) together with an updated monthly/annual provincial-level dataset from 1988 to 2020. I find that several softwood lumber trade restrictions have led to significant trade diversion from named to non-named provinces.