Browsing by Author "McDonald, Ted"

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    A profile of employment across industries in New Brunswick: 1996-2019
    (New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2020) Boco, Eton; Leonard, Philip; McDonald, Ted
    This report examines employment and industry changes in New Brunswick (NB) over a 20-year period (1996 to 2016) using data from the Canadian Census. It also examines changes over a ten-year period (2009 to 2019) using data from the Labour Force Survey. Results are stratified by CMA/CA1 and by industry using the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).
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    Analysis of unmatched immigrants in the BizNet Database
    (New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2020) Leonard, Philip; McDonald, Ted; Miah, Pablo
    New Brunswick has been facing the problem of an aging and shrinking population for some time now, and both factors are likely to affect the economy and workforce of the province. To implement measures for proactive population growth and for increasing the size of the labour force, the Government of New Brunswick (GNB) has identified immigration as a key strategy – and while NB has seen a growing number of immigrant arrivals, the retention of landed immigrants must be a primary objective. Identifying trends in immigrant retention, and factors influencing retention, can help decision makers understand how well current policies work and – if required – make necessary changes.
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    Apprenticeship programs in the Atlantic provinces: Program characteristics, apprentice mobility and earnings
    (New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2017) Emery, Herb; McDonald, Ted; Balcom, Andrew
    This report presents descriptive statistics on various dimensions of apprenticeship training in the Atlantic provinces. The report is based on statistics generated by Statistics Canada from a complex individual-level longitudinal dataset linking data from multiple sources including the Registered Apprenticeship Information System, T1 tax files and T4 statements of earnings over the period 2008-2013 inclusive. The longitudinal nature of the data allow mobility to be evaluated, including comparisons of province of study, province of residence and province of work before, during and after apprenticeship training. The report considers three dimensions of apprenticeships: characteristics of participants including demographic characteristics, field of study, and status in the program; mobility of apprentices, comparing province of study with province of employment and province of residence while enrolled and after the program is either completed or discontinued; and earnings of those in the program and those who completed or discontinued the program, with a focus on differences in earnings for movers compared to non-movers. For all three dimensions, results are compared across individuals enrolled in apprenticeship programs in each of the Atlantic provinces.
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    Breathe: A cost-effectiveness evaluation of breath-based lung cancer screenings
    (New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2022-09) Emery, Herb; Cameron, Jillian; Dutton, Daniel J.; Singh, Paramdeep; Chan, Alvin; McDonald, Ted
    Current incidence rates of lung cancer in the United States show that per 100,000 population, lung cancer will occur in 49 women and 60 men. Nearly half a million individuals in the United States were diagnosed with lung cancer between 2013 and 2017, and Canadian prevalence rates are similar: nearly 30,000 people are diagnosed with lung cancer each year. Mortality due to lung cancer is significant as well: approximately 130,000 people in the US and 21,000 people in Canada die annually due to lung cancer. Costs for treatment are also substantial, totaling about $2 billion per year in Canada, or approximately $70,000 per case. The high cost per case of cancer arises from many factors, central among them the advanced stage at diagnosis of many tumors leading to expensive therapies and treatments, costs for formal and informal caregivers, and life-years lost. The incidence and high mortality and costs associated with lung cancer show that lowering both the percentage of people receiving lung cancer diagnoses and the costs of treating lung cancer are important issues for our healthcare systems.
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    Caractérisation de la population francophone de la région du Grand Saint John (2015- 2020)
    (l’Institut de recherche, de données et de formation du Nouveau-Brunswick de l’Université du Nouveau-Brunswick, 2023-02) McDonald, Ted; Balzer, Andy; Cameron, Jillian; Mokhtar, Rawia
    Le bilinguisme rend la province du Nouveau-Brunswick (N.-B.) unique au sein du Canada, de par sa forte diversité linguistique et son incroyable richesse culturelle. Cependant, comme le Nouveau-Brunswick est la seule province officiellement bilingue du Canada, certains segments de sa population sont confrontés à des obstacles linguistiques. Par exemple, il n’y a que peu d’information sur la taille de la communauté francophone dont les membres préféreraient un service en français dans les régions à majorité anglophone. Sans cette information, il est, toutefois, impossible de représenter précisément la demande potentielle de services sociaux et de soins de santé en français et de trouver le moyen de répondre à cette demande le plus efficacement possible. Dans ce rapport, nous tentons de remédier aux obstacles linguistiques, particulièrement dans la région du Grand Saint John1 en élaborant un profil de la population francophone de cette région. Pour combler cette lacune au niveau des connaissances et éclairer les discussions sur les obstacles linguistiques au N.-B., les auteurs de ce rapport exposent une analyse de la mesure dans laquelle les services de santé, entre autres services d’aide, peuvent être offerts en français dans les régions à majorité anglophone de la province. Parmi les aspects visés, mentionnons l’état de santé des résidents, l’usage des services de santé, la réception des services sociaux, la composition des ménages et le profil socio-économique du quartier. Nous examinons comment ces aspects ont changé au fil du temps et nous les comparons à celles des Néo-Brunswickois francophones et anglophones qui vivent dans une communauté urbaine majoritairement francophone et des résidents anglophones qui vivent dans la RGSJ, à Moncton et dans le reste du N.-B.2 Étant donné qu’à ce jour, la seule information sur la préférence linguistique que l’on trouve dans les données administratives du N.-B. est tirée des dossiers du système de l’assurance-maladie de la province, il y a des raisons de croire que l’on sous-estime peut-être la préférence linguistique réelle concernant les services de santé. C’est pourquoi nous envisageons des ajustements en fonction des résultats sur les connaissances linguistiques régionales indiqués dans le recensement canadien de 2016.
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    Characterizing The Francophone Population in Greater Saint John (2015-2020)
    (New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2023-02) McDonald, Ted; Balzer, Andy; Cameron, Jillian; Mokhtar, Rawia
    Bilingualism makes the province of New Brunswick (NB) unique within Canada, bringing with it a high level of linguistic diversity and cultural enrichment. However, as Canada’s only officially bilingual province, NB also faces issues of language barriers affecting segments of its population. For instance, there is limited information about the size of the Francophone community that would prefer service in French in majority Anglophone areas. Without this information, it is impossible to accurately represent the potential demand for French-language health and social services and how to meet that demand most efficiently. In this report, we attempt to address language barriers specifically in the Greater Saint John (GSJ) region by constructing a population profile of the Francophone population of GSJ. To fill this knowledge gap and to inform discussions of language barriers in NB, this report supports an analysis of the extent to which health and other support services might be provided in French in majority-Anglophone areas of the province. Measures of interest include residents’ health status, health service use, social services receipt, household composition, and neighbourhood socioeconomic profile. We consider how these measures have changed over time and how they compare for Francophone and Anglophone New Brunswickers living in urban majority-French communities, as well as Anglophone residents living GSJ, Moncton, and the Rest of NB. To date, the only information on language preference in NB administrative data is based on records in the province’s Medicare system, and there is reason to believe this might underestimate actual language preference for health services. As such, we consider adjustments based on measures of area-level language fluency as reported in the 2016 Canadian Census.
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    Choosing wisely: Imaging for lower back pain
    (New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2022-01) Emery, Jillian; DeVries, Gwenyth; McDonald, Ted; Somayaji, Chandy
    As part of a global movement that began in the United States in 2012, Choosing Wisely Canada was launched in 2014 to help reduce unnecessary tests and treatments in healthcare. One of its recommendations is to not do imaging for lower back pain unless ‘red flags’ – or conditions that warrant diagnostic imaging – are present. In 2015, the Canadian Medical Imaging Inventory indicated that New Brunswick (NB) had the third-highest number of average CTs (computed tomography scans) per 1,000 population. In 2020, a revised report suggested NB had the highest number in the entire country. To date, there has been no detailed breakdown of the diagnostic imaging performed in NB to inform of past trends or advise on future directions; the Choosing Wisely New Brunswick steering committee therefore prioritized the investigation of accessible health data. This study aims to address this issue by linking lumbar spine imaging data with population demographics data at the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training to look for variations in lumbar spine imaging patterns in NB between 2012 and 2019. We investigate regional volumes and types of imaging and identify the volume of lower back pain imaging that aligns with indicators of red flag conditions.
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    College and university graduate retention in New Brunswick: 2010 - 2018
    (2021-03) McDonald, Ted; Bhuiyan, Erfan; Daigle, Bethany; Miah, Pablo
    New Brunswick (NB) invests substantially in educating post-secondary students. When qualified graduates leave the province, much of that investment is lost, as they take their human capital (and potential earnings) with them when they relocate. Understanding what kinds of graduates are leaving and what kinds of graduates are staying can help inform targeted policies that encourage graduates to stay and contribute to the local economy, and estimating graduate retention rates can help determine if NB is seeing a high or low return on its investments. The objective of this report is to present a statistical description of individuals who have graduated from the following publicly funded colleges and universities in NB*: The University of New Brunswick (UNB) Université de Moncton (UdeM) Mount Allison University (MTA) St. Thomas University (STU) New Brunswick Community College (NBCC) Collège communautaire du Nouveau-Brunswick (CCNB) The New Brunswick College of Craft and Design (NBCCD) *The Maritime College of Forest Technology is excluded from this study.
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    Comparisons of high school equivalency and high school diplomas in NB
    (New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2019) Leonard, Philip; McDonald, Ted; Balzer, Andy
    Is getting a GED as “good” as getting a high school diploma? New Brunswickers who drop out of high school but later complete their high school education commonly receive a General Equivalency Diploma – otherwise known as a GED. Some may assume that having a GED or other equivalency degree is comparable to having a high school diploma. Meanwhile, others ask if having a GED is better than having no degree at all. To shed light on this issue, researchers at NB-IRDT look at the evidence surrounding labour market outcomes. This report uses data from the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) from the 2016 General Social Survey to examine labour market outcomes – including employment and average income – for New Brunswickers possessing a high school equivalency diploma, a traditional high school diploma, or less than a high school education. New Brunswickers with levels of education beyond high school are not included in this comparison. Findings show that while employment rates and average incomes for individuals with an equivalency diploma are not as high as for those with a high school diploma, they are considerably higher than those of individuals who did not complete a high school education. At the time of the survey, 51% of individuals with an equivalency diploma were employed, versus 60% with a high school diploma and 31% without a high school education. Individuals with an equivalency diploma were earning approximately $31,742 a year, compared to $32,381 for those with a high school diploma and $19,893 for those without a high school education. Previous studies have asked whether there is any advantage to getting a GED over not getting one at all. The results suggest the answer is “yes” – in the labour market, at least.
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    Constructing profiles of low-skilled workers in New Brunswick
    (New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2021-07) Bhuiyan, Erfan Mahmood; Leonard, Philip; McDonald, Ted
    Introduction The objective of this report is to construct profiles of low-skilled workers in New Brunswick (NB) using different definitions of low skill and to evaluate how these profiles have evolved over time. Profiles include age group, sex, ethnicity, immigration status, employment status, industry, region of residence, and income. Data and Definitions The results of this report are based on the master data files of the 1996, 2001, 2006, and 2016 cycles of the Canadian Census and the 2011 National Household Survey (NHS) available in the Statistics Canada Research Data Centre (RDC) in Fredericton, NB. Overview and Key Findings This report constructs statistical descriptions, or profiles, of low-skilled workers in New Brunswick using three different definitions for low skill: Lack of high school certificate or its equivalent National Occupational Classification (NOC) Skill Level D Annual earnings, based on employment income, in the lowest income quintile Using these definitions for low skill, this report finds the following: 13% of working-age New Brunswickers have less than a high school certificate or equivalent This group earns an annual median income of $21,550 11% of working-age New Brunswickers are employed in NOC Skill Level D occupations This group earns an annual median income of $18,505 16% of working-age New Brunswickers earn less than the lowest income quintile cut-off. This group earns an annual median income of $6,820 Conclusion Understanding who the low-skilled workers in NB are and how the profiles of these individuals have evolved over time will help the government design more targeted programs. Once the most vulnerable groups are identified, it becomes easier to see whether they are taking advantage of existing public programs. According to this report, the groups considered most vulnerable to being low-skilled include women, part-time workers, and New Brunswickers aged 20-24. This information has the potential to help the government examine the impact of existing programs aimed at these individuals and evaluate how such programs can be improved to better serve these likely vulnerable groups.
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    Decomposing the gender wage gap
    (University of New Brunswick, 2017) Shcherbakov, Dmitry; McDonald, Ted
    The gender wage gap persists as an important and controversial topic in various socio-economic agendas and appears as a topic of research in scholarly research regularly. The conventional approach to conducting a gender wage gap assessment is measuring the difference in average earnings between men and women that remains after controlling for various explanatory variables suggested by theory and empirical labor studies. The list of explanatory factors used in particular papers varies depending on the specificity of the population sample, availability of data, research focus and other aspects. Specifically, variation in occupational distribution between men and women in most cases in the literature has been limited to 20-40 fairly broad occupational groups. The inclusion of occupation as an explanatory variable is a controversial approach as it may lead to an undervaluation of the influence of labor market gender segregation tendencies, or, on the opposite, to over-justification of gender-pay differentials. This thesis provides an overview of conventional techniques used for gender wage gap estimations, discusses the importance and appropriateness of occupation as an explanatory variable, and contrasts gender wage gap estimations with and without these controls in the context of the Canadian labor market. Furthermore the thesis tests whether very detailed occupation controls is advantageous compared with a more limited set of broad occupational groups in terms of examination of the wage gap, and suggests evidence for justification of occupational gender segregation that is often perceived as discrimination.
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    Graduate retention in New Brunswick: 2019 and 2020 cohort update
    (New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2023-01) Balzer, Andy; McDonald, Ted; Miah, Pablo; Mokhtar, Rawia
    This report is the first in a series of annual updates on post-secondary graduates’ retention in New Brunswick (NB) that will be released by the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) each year. These reports provide an overview of NB graduates’ retention patterns since the previous reporting period, and these periodic updates on graduates’ retention trends can help guide public policy discussions around education and training strategies to attract youth to study, work, and live in NB. The current study, which looks at 2019 and 2020 graduate cohorts, updates the graduate retention results published by Bhuiyan et al. (2020), which considered individuals who graduated as recently as 2018. However, two changes in methodology used in this report mean that results presented here are not directly comparable to the previous results (Bhuiyan et al., 2020). The first change is that in this report, the data on university graduates come from the Maritime Provinces Higher Education Commission (MPHEC), rather than the universities themselves. Though graduation numbers are very close between the two sources, data matching rates are lower with the new source. Second, a more conservative definition of retention is adopted in this report, whereby changes in Medicare status prior to an individual’s graduation date are used to assess retention post-graduation. These methodological changes are discussed in more detail in the report, but the net result is that estimated retention rates in this report are somewhat lower than comparable results in the previous report. We therefore present the full historical series of retention rates so that changes over time can be assessed using a consistent methodology.
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    Graduate retention in New Brunswick: Supplementary report on graduates in social work
    (New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2023-05) Jones, Bethany; McDonald, Ted; Miah, Pablo
    In January 2023, the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training released a report called Graduate retention in New Brunswick: 2019 and 2020 cohort update (Balzer et al.), 1 which gave an overview of post-secondary graduates’ retention patterns, disaggregated by their field of study. While this provided many valuable insights into graduates’ education and mobility decisions, the fields of study examined were purposely broad. This allowed for comparison between graduates of programs in arts, science, business, and healthcare, for instance, but it did not allow for a narrower focus on the outcomes of graduates of specific fields of interest. In New Brunswick, social work is one such field of interest. The retention of social work graduates 2 is an important topic in the public sphere, as social work has been identified as the second highest profession in need of a recruitment and retention strategy in New Brunswick, and pre-pandemic projections suggest the province could have a shortage of 272 social workers by 2030 (New Brunswick Association of Social Workers [NBASW], 2022). Given the increased demand for social workers since the start of COVID-19, this shortage could be even greater (NBASW, 2022). This study focuses on the retention of social work graduates in New Brunswick and acts as a supplement to the earlier work by Balzer et al. (2023), using the same data and methodology but further breaking down the field of study category to examine social work specifically. The findings in this report provide an overview of social work graduates’ demographic backgrounds and mobility decisions and can help guide public policy discussions around education and training strategies to retain social workers in NB. 1 Graduate retention in New Brunswick: 2019 and 2020 cohort update (Balzer et al., 2023) 2 In this report, we refer to graduates of university social work programs and college social service community worker programs as “social work graduates.”
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    Home ownership as a means to retain immigrants in Atlantic Canada
    (University of New Brunswick, 2016) Thomas, Anu; McDonald, Ted
    Various policy measures have been put in place to attract and retain newcomers to Atlantic Canada but the policies have met with limited success. Using the Longitudinal Survey of Immigrants to Canada, this paper examines the relationship between housing status and inter-provincial migrations. It examines the capacity of entry to home ownership as a means to retain human capital within a region and reverse demographic trends. The literature review examines characteristics of new immigrants and the potential for Atlantic Canada to use its housing market to anchor newcomers in the region. Results indicate a strong correlation between the initial province of residence and the province of address four years later. Immigrant households show a high rate of transition from tenancy to ownership and this may deter their interprovincial mobility. In comparison to other regions, Atlantic Canada has generally more affordable housing, and a significantly lower proportion of individuals spending over 50% of their income across different levels of housing.
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    Immigrant income and labour market outcomes: 2006 - 2015 cohorts
    (New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2021-06) Boco, Eton; Emery, Herb; McDonald, Ted; Mokhtar, Rawia
    One of the central goals for the province of New Brunswick (NB) is to boost economic development by increasing labour market participation, and immigration is key to this plan. NB is faced with many demographic challenges, including an aging population, slow population growth, and the out-migration of its younger workers. All these issues have a negative impact on the provincial economy, which in turn is faced with the fiscal challenges of a shrinking tax-base and decreasing workforce. The Government of New Brunswick (GNB) has implemented many immigration programs, all with the expectation that immigrants will play a vital role in remedying these challenges while benefitting from participation in and contribution to the culture and labour market of NB. However, while NB has successfully welcomed a growing number of immigrants over time, there is still a need to retain the immigrants who land here. Immigrant retention poses a challenge for the province’s goal of population growth, as a substantial number of immigrants choose to leave the NB years after landing. In 2019, the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) examined the retention of immigrants arriving through NB’s Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) – one of the many immigration streams implemented by GNB to boost immigration in NB. Researchers found that just about half of PNP immigrants destined for NB were still living in the province five years after arriving. These findings raise further questions, such as, “Who decides to stay? Who decides to leave? And what factors influence these decisions?” Understanding the experiences of immigrants residing in NB may help the province address challenges related to immigrant retention, and since there is a well-established link between mobility and economic opportunity, focusing on the economic experiences of immigrants in NB may shed light on a correlation between experiences and retention. To this end, this report examines the economic outcomes and retention rates of immigrants in NB to investigate trends and determinants of income and retention. With the goal of contributing to evidence-based assessments of provincial immigration policies and efforts, it presents detailed descriptive and empirical evidence on the evolution of immigrant retention and immigrants’ post-landing labour market experiences. This report has five aims: To show changes in the economic and demographic profiles of NB immigrants over time To show how NB’s major cities – Moncton, Saint John, and Fredericton – are doing at retaining immigrants destined for them To show which characteristics are associated with immigrants performing better (i.e., earning more) in the NB labour market To consider whether those with pre-admission time spent in NB on a work or study permit or with asylum claims have an advantage over those who had none before landing as permanent residents To show correlations, if any, between retention and economic success in the form of employment income for immigrants in NB
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    Immigrant Retention in New Brunswick: 2019 and 2020 Arrival Cohorts
    (New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2022-11) McDonald, Ted; Miah, Pablo; Mokhtar, Rawia
    This report is the first in a series of annual updates on immigrant retention in New Brunswick each year. These reports provide an overview of NB immigration retention patterns since the previous reporting period. These periodic updates on immigration trends can guide public policy concerned with strategies to attract immigrants and ways to retain established immigrant populations. The current study, which includes data on immigrant cohorts that landed in 2019 and 2020, provides an update to the immigrant retention results released by NB-IRDT in 2021 (McDonald & Miah, 2021), which only included data until 2018.
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    Immigrant retention in New Brunswick: An analysis using linked federal-provincial administrative data
    (New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2021-07) McDonald, Ted; Miah, Pablo
    The Government of New Brunswick (GNB) has identified immigration as a key strategy for addressing stagnant population growth and a shrinking labour force. GNB invests significant resources and efforts to attract more immigrants to the province and retain them. However, to understand if current policies are effective or need to be altered, it is important to know the retention rates of immigrants arriving in New Brunswick and which factors influence these rates. In 2019, NB-IRDT released a report titled “Immigrant retention in New Brunswick: Results from BizNet and Citizen Database” (Leonard et al.), in which data from Biznet (the Provincial Nominee Program database) and the Citizen Database (Medicare registry) were used to estimate the retention rates of immigrants who arrived through the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP). The current study provides an update and extension to the 2019 report with the objective of using matched federal data from the Permanent Resident Landing File of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) and the Citizen Database to estimate the retention rates of all immigrants who intended to arrive in New Brunswick (NB). As such, this study investigates - which streams of immigrants have higher retention rates, - factors influencing the decision to leave NB, and - retention rates for immigrants in the Atlantic Immigration Pilot (AIP) program. It also examines retention rates for PNP and immigration streams within PNP using data from Immigration New Brunswick (previously BizNet) and the Citizen Database for additional granularity in settlement streams not available in the IRCC data. These databases have been matched through the Department of Health using the name, gender, and birthdate of individuals; stripped of any personal identifiers (e.g., addresses); and pseudonymized (de-identified) before being sent to NB-IRDT.
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    Immigrant retention in New Brunswick: Results from BizNet and Citizen Database
    (New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2019) Leonard, Philip; McDonald, Ted; Miah, Pablo
    How many immigrants typically land in New Brunswick? And how many stay? In an effort to boost the population and economy of New Brunswick, the provincial government has invested many resources in attracting and retaining immigrants. One such initiative is the Provincial Nomination Program (PNP), which accelerates the immigration and Permanent Resident application process for skilled workers and immigrants (and their family members) with experience in business. In this report, researchers from the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) use linked data from BizNet and the Citizen Database to investigate the number of landings (2001-2017) and retention rates (2005-2017) of immigrations in New Brunswick, focusing in particular on immigrants who arrived through the PNP. Results show that the number of Provincial Nominees has been steadily rising since 2005, reaching over 950 a year in 2017. Meanwhile, of the Nominees in New Brunswick long enough to receive a Medicare number, 75% remain in province one year later; 60% remain 3 years later, and less than 50% remain 5 years later. Report findings indicate that New Brunswick retains approximately 64% of targeted immigrants through the PNP. Findings also show that the largest number of Provincial Nominees has consistently come from China, though the number from the Philippines has been increasing rapidly since 2016. Immigrants from the Philippines also have the highest retention rates. Future updates to the Citizen Database and BizNet datasets will make it possible to analyze retention rates of applicants through the Atlantic Immigration Pilot as well.
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    Impaired driving: how effective are Canada’s impaired driving laws
    (University of New Brunswick, 2015) Olalekan, Adio; McDonald, Ted
    Impaired driving has been a major cause of death and injuries in Canada for decades, and in response a succession of laws has been put in place to reduce cases of impaired driving. This report evaluates the effectiveness of a number of recent changes to impaired laws using econometric methods applied to a Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) level dataset over a 12-year period and makes recommendations about what approaches might be introduced in the future to reduce the cases of impaired driving. Results indicated that after controlling for changes in demographic, socioeconomic and geographic characteristics, as well as a secular trend in reduction in incidence over time, measures enacted to reduce the blood alcohol content level before charges applied and the duration of license suspension had no appreciable effect on the incidence of impaired driving. In addition, results indicated that police concentration appeared to have a positive effect on impaired driving incidence, likely indicating an increase in detection rather than any changes in underlying driver behavior.
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    Lifting restrictions for COVID-19: Implications for New Brunswick
    (New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2020-04-26) McDonald, Ted; Boco, Eton; Christensen, Eva; Daigle, Bethany; Somayaji, Chandy; Bhuiyan, Erfan; McRae, Sarah
    The purpose of this rapid review (Part 2 in a 2-part series) is to examine the literature on the various steps being taken around the world to lift restrictions implemented to suppress the spread of COVID-19 – including social restrictions, such as those related to physical distancing, and economic restrictions, such as those affecting the closure of non-essential stores and other businesses. We find that some restrictions, such the closure of schools and non-essential stores and services, are more commonly among the first to be lifted – though this is done so gradually and with accompanying physical distancing and hygiene requirements. Countries around the world have also begun to ease and/or recommend measures impacting travel, recreation, and sectors of the workforce. While it is too soon to observe the outcomes for many of these measures, modelling studies and observations of case trajectories in Asia suggest a COVID-19 resurgence is likely to occur as restrictions are eased – but if appropriate measures are in place to monitor further infection and reinstate intermittent restrictions, future resurgence could be managed. The information presented herein on the experiences of other locations ahead of New Brunswick in their COVID trajectories and in the process of reopening their economies can provide valuable insights into the steps this province could take when lifting its own restrictions in future. For Part 2 of this report, we propose to supplement the current work with a qualitative review of the outcomes of easing restrictions, as well as quantitative metrics on the indicators leading up to lifting restrictions – both of which will be used to guide a discussion of implications for scaling back COVID-19 restrictions in New Brunswick