Browsing by Author "Miah, Pablo"
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Item Analysis of unmatched immigrants in the BizNet Database(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2020) Leonard, Philip; McDonald, Ted; Miah, PabloNew Brunswick has been facing the problem of an aging and shrinking population for some time now, and both factors are likely to affect the economy and workforce of the province. To implement measures for proactive population growth and for increasing the size of the labour force, the Government of New Brunswick (GNB) has identified immigration as a key strategy – and while NB has seen a growing number of immigrant arrivals, the retention of landed immigrants must be a primary objective. Identifying trends in immigrant retention, and factors influencing retention, can help decision makers understand how well current policies work and – if required – make necessary changes.Item College and university graduate retention in New Brunswick: 2010 - 2018(2021-03) McDonald, Ted; Bhuiyan, Erfan; Daigle, Bethany; Miah, PabloNew Brunswick (NB) invests substantially in educating post-secondary students. When qualified graduates leave the province, much of that investment is lost, as they take their human capital (and potential earnings) with them when they relocate. Understanding what kinds of graduates are leaving and what kinds of graduates are staying can help inform targeted policies that encourage graduates to stay and contribute to the local economy, and estimating graduate retention rates can help determine if NB is seeing a high or low return on its investments. The objective of this report is to present a statistical description of individuals who have graduated from the following publicly funded colleges and universities in NB*: The University of New Brunswick (UNB) Université de Moncton (UdeM) Mount Allison University (MTA) St. Thomas University (STU) New Brunswick Community College (NBCC) Collège communautaire du Nouveau-Brunswick (CCNB) The New Brunswick College of Craft and Design (NBCCD) *The Maritime College of Forest Technology is excluded from this study.Item Graduate retention in New Brunswick: 2019 and 2020 cohort update(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2023-01) Balzer, Andy; McDonald, Ted; Miah, Pablo; Mokhtar, RawiaThis report is the first in a series of annual updates on post-secondary graduates’ retention in New Brunswick (NB) that will be released by the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) each year. These reports provide an overview of NB graduates’ retention patterns since the previous reporting period, and these periodic updates on graduates’ retention trends can help guide public policy discussions around education and training strategies to attract youth to study, work, and live in NB. The current study, which looks at 2019 and 2020 graduate cohorts, updates the graduate retention results published by Bhuiyan et al. (2020), which considered individuals who graduated as recently as 2018. However, two changes in methodology used in this report mean that results presented here are not directly comparable to the previous results (Bhuiyan et al., 2020). The first change is that in this report, the data on university graduates come from the Maritime Provinces Higher Education Commission (MPHEC), rather than the universities themselves. Though graduation numbers are very close between the two sources, data matching rates are lower with the new source. Second, a more conservative definition of retention is adopted in this report, whereby changes in Medicare status prior to an individual’s graduation date are used to assess retention post-graduation. These methodological changes are discussed in more detail in the report, but the net result is that estimated retention rates in this report are somewhat lower than comparable results in the previous report. We therefore present the full historical series of retention rates so that changes over time can be assessed using a consistent methodology.Item Graduate retention in New Brunswick: Supplementary report on graduates in social work(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2023-05) Jones, Bethany; McDonald, Ted; Miah, PabloIn January 2023, the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training released a report called Graduate retention in New Brunswick: 2019 and 2020 cohort update (Balzer et al.), 1 which gave an overview of post-secondary graduates’ retention patterns, disaggregated by their field of study. While this provided many valuable insights into graduates’ education and mobility decisions, the fields of study examined were purposely broad. This allowed for comparison between graduates of programs in arts, science, business, and healthcare, for instance, but it did not allow for a narrower focus on the outcomes of graduates of specific fields of interest. In New Brunswick, social work is one such field of interest. The retention of social work graduates 2 is an important topic in the public sphere, as social work has been identified as the second highest profession in need of a recruitment and retention strategy in New Brunswick, and pre-pandemic projections suggest the province could have a shortage of 272 social workers by 2030 (New Brunswick Association of Social Workers [NBASW], 2022). Given the increased demand for social workers since the start of COVID-19, this shortage could be even greater (NBASW, 2022). This study focuses on the retention of social work graduates in New Brunswick and acts as a supplement to the earlier work by Balzer et al. (2023), using the same data and methodology but further breaking down the field of study category to examine social work specifically. The findings in this report provide an overview of social work graduates’ demographic backgrounds and mobility decisions and can help guide public policy discussions around education and training strategies to retain social workers in NB. 1 Graduate retention in New Brunswick: 2019 and 2020 cohort update (Balzer et al., 2023) 2 In this report, we refer to graduates of university social work programs and college social service community worker programs as “social work graduates.”Item Immigrant Retention in New Brunswick: 2019 and 2020 Arrival Cohorts(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2022-11) McDonald, Ted; Miah, Pablo; Mokhtar, RawiaThis report is the first in a series of annual updates on immigrant retention in New Brunswick each year. These reports provide an overview of NB immigration retention patterns since the previous reporting period. These periodic updates on immigration trends can guide public policy concerned with strategies to attract immigrants and ways to retain established immigrant populations. The current study, which includes data on immigrant cohorts that landed in 2019 and 2020, provides an update to the immigrant retention results released by NB-IRDT in 2021 (McDonald & Miah, 2021), which only included data until 2018.Item Immigrant retention in New Brunswick: An analysis using linked federal-provincial administrative data(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2021-07) McDonald, Ted; Miah, PabloThe Government of New Brunswick (GNB) has identified immigration as a key strategy for addressing stagnant population growth and a shrinking labour force. GNB invests significant resources and efforts to attract more immigrants to the province and retain them. However, to understand if current policies are effective or need to be altered, it is important to know the retention rates of immigrants arriving in New Brunswick and which factors influence these rates. In 2019, NB-IRDT released a report titled “Immigrant retention in New Brunswick: Results from BizNet and Citizen Database” (Leonard et al.), in which data from Biznet (the Provincial Nominee Program database) and the Citizen Database (Medicare registry) were used to estimate the retention rates of immigrants who arrived through the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP). The current study provides an update and extension to the 2019 report with the objective of using matched federal data from the Permanent Resident Landing File of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) and the Citizen Database to estimate the retention rates of all immigrants who intended to arrive in New Brunswick (NB). As such, this study investigates - which streams of immigrants have higher retention rates, - factors influencing the decision to leave NB, and - retention rates for immigrants in the Atlantic Immigration Pilot (AIP) program. It also examines retention rates for PNP and immigration streams within PNP using data from Immigration New Brunswick (previously BizNet) and the Citizen Database for additional granularity in settlement streams not available in the IRCC data. These databases have been matched through the Department of Health using the name, gender, and birthdate of individuals; stripped of any personal identifiers (e.g., addresses); and pseudonymized (de-identified) before being sent to NB-IRDT.Item Immigrant retention in New Brunswick: Results from BizNet and Citizen Database(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2019) Leonard, Philip; McDonald, Ted; Miah, PabloHow many immigrants typically land in New Brunswick? And how many stay? In an effort to boost the population and economy of New Brunswick, the provincial government has invested many resources in attracting and retaining immigrants. One such initiative is the Provincial Nomination Program (PNP), which accelerates the immigration and Permanent Resident application process for skilled workers and immigrants (and their family members) with experience in business. In this report, researchers from the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) use linked data from BizNet and the Citizen Database to investigate the number of landings (2001-2017) and retention rates (2005-2017) of immigrations in New Brunswick, focusing in particular on immigrants who arrived through the PNP. Results show that the number of Provincial Nominees has been steadily rising since 2005, reaching over 950 a year in 2017. Meanwhile, of the Nominees in New Brunswick long enough to receive a Medicare number, 75% remain in province one year later; 60% remain 3 years later, and less than 50% remain 5 years later. Report findings indicate that New Brunswick retains approximately 64% of targeted immigrants through the PNP. Findings also show that the largest number of Provincial Nominees has consistently come from China, though the number from the Philippines has been increasing rapidly since 2016. Immigrants from the Philippines also have the highest retention rates. Future updates to the Citizen Database and BizNet datasets will make it possible to analyze retention rates of applicants through the Atlantic Immigration Pilot as well.Item New Brunswick population and demographic counts: 2019-2022(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2023-10) Beykzadeh, Ali; Jones, Bethany; McDonald, Ted; Miah, PabloIn 2021, the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) released the first report in a Population and demographics count series that provides a snapshot of the population of New Brunswick each year. These reports measure the total population count of New Brunswick and include information on New Brunswickers' demographic and geographic characteristics, as well as movement to and from the province. Each new update provides an overview of how the population has changed since the previous report was released, allowing us to see whether NB is attracting new residents and if individuals who previously left are now returning. This is the fourth report in the series, and it updates our population snapshot by comparing annual results from January 2019 until December 2022.Item Projected outcomes of an expanded role for pharmacy professionals in the provision of publicly funded immunization services in New Brunswick(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2021-10) Folkins, Chris; Gorman-Asal, Madeleine; Magalhaes, Sandra; Brewster, Clark; Gulliver, Adrienne; Singh, Paramdeep; Foster, Rebecca; Miah, Pablo; Thomson, Emily; McDonald, TedNew Brunswick (NB) legislation permits pharmacy professionals (pharmacists, and as of 2021, registered pharmacy technicians) to administer a wide range of immunizations to their patients. Many vaccines in New Brunswick are publicly funded and available at no charge to patients when administered by a physician or nurse practitioner; however, the majority of these vaccines are not publicly funded when administered by pharmacy professionals, even though legislation permits their administration. Currently, only vaccines against influenza and COVID-19 are publicly funded when administered by pharmacy professionals in NB. This creates a scenario in which patients wishing to take advantage of the convenience and accessibility offered by pharmacy-based vaccination services must pay for most vaccinations (including drug costs and service administration fees) out of pocket – even when, in the case of publicly funded vaccines, these same vaccinations are available through a physician at no cost to the patient. This situation represents a barrier to accessible health services, particularly for NB residents who do not have access to a primary care provider, and a missed opportunity to take advantage of the full scope of practice of NB’s pharmacy professionals. By expanding the repertoire of publicly funded vaccinations that can be administered by pharmacy professionals, it is hypothesized that cost savings, improved health outcomes, and improved access to care could be realized in New Brunswick. The main objective of this study is to understand how expanding the number of publicly funded vaccines pharmacy professionals can administer would impact provincial spending, access to care, and health outcomes in New Brunswick.Item Public facility closure and its impact on population mobility in New Brunswick(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2022-05) Emery, Herb; McDonald, Ted; Miah, PabloIn popular culture, one phrase is often used to manifest success: “If you build it, they will come.” While this idea exudes positivity and the power of hard work, we have to question its accuracy in terms of population research. In a province like New Brunswick, which is heavily invested in population growth and recruitment, does building public facilities and increasing public services actually prompt people to come and stay? And, conversely, does closing public facilities or reducing services prompt them to leave? Answering these questions could be key to population recruitment and retention strategies, which are crucial to the future success of our economy, labour market, and social culture. Across NB, public facilities like schools and hospitals provide valuable services to the population, taking on the role of “public assets.” In this report, we investigate the link between these public assets and population mobility in the province, asking whether opening and closing facilities, and changing service offerings, has any effect on New Brunswickers’ mobility decisions. More specifically, we look at the population mobility patterns in the neighbourhoods (i.e., “dissemination areas”1) near these facilities before and after such changes. To do so, this study uses the Citizen Database (Medicare Registry) as the primary dataset to track population movement and annual population counts in a dissemination area (DA) over the period 2002-2018. Data identifying active and closed schools in the province (2000-2018) is provided by the Department of Education and Early Childhood Development (EECD), and data on the status of hospitals in NB is obtained from the province’s Annual Reports of Hospital Services (2003-2015). Distance to the nearest school (active/closed) and hospital (active/closed) is measured for each of the province’s DAs in the Citizen Database to estimate the impact of public facility closure on population change.Item Rapid response report on COVID-19 in New Brunswick: April 14, 2020(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2020-04-14) Bhuiyan, Erfan Mahmood; Christensen, Eva; Daigle, Bethany; Magalhaes, Sandra; McDonald, Ted; Miah, Pablo; Somayaji, ChandyThis series of reports provides successive updates of projections that the trajectory of COVID-19 cases could follow in New Brunswick based on the experiences of other countries and regions who experienced initial COVID-19 infections earlier than NB. Specifically, these projections estimate what NB’s incident cases, hospitalizations and mortality might be if our province experienced disease trajectories similar to a range of comparison countries and regions, for both 10-day forward and peak infection scenarios. By updating our estimates in subsequent reports as more data become available, we are able to examine how NB is actually doing relative to those scenarios and use the updated data to revise our forecasts accordingly.Item Rapid response report on COVID-19 in New Brunswick: April 27, 2020(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2020-04-27) Bhuiyan, Erfan Mahmood; Christensen, Eva; Daigle, Bethany; Magalhaes, Sandra; McDonald, Ted; Miah, Pablo; Somayaji, ChandyThis series of reports provides successive updates of projections that the trajectory of COVID-19 cases could follow in New Brunswick based on the experiences of other countries and regions who experienced initial COVID-19 infections earlier than NB. Specifically, these projections estimate what NB’s incident cases, hospitalizations and mortality might be if our province experienced disease trajectories similar to a range of comparison countries and regions, for both 10-day forward and peak infection scenarios. By updating our estimates in subsequent reports as more data become available, we are able to examine how NB is actually doing relative to those scenarios and use the updated data to revise our forecasts accordingly.Item Rapid response report on COVID-19 in New Brunswick: March 31, 2020(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2020-03-31) Bhuiyan, Erfan Mahmood; Christensen, Eva; Daigle, Bethany; Magalhaes, Sandra; McDonald, Ted; Miah, Pablo; Somayaji, ChandyThis series of reports provides successive updates of projections that the trajectory of COVID-19 cases could follow in New Brunswick based on the experiences of other countries and regions who experienced initial COVID-19 infections earlier than NB. Specifically, these projections estimate what NB’s incident cases, hospitalizations and mortality might be if our province experienced disease trajectories similar to a range of comparison countries and regions, for both 10-day forward and peak infection scenarios. By updating our estimates in subsequent reports as more data become available, we are able to examine how NB is actually doing relative to those scenarios and use the updated data to revise our forecasts accordingly.Item Rapport d’intervention rapide concernant la COVID-19 au Nouveau-Brunswick : Le 31 mars 2020(l’Institut de recherche, de données et de formation du Nouveau-Brunswick, 2020-03-31) Bhuiyan, Erfan Mahmood; Christensen, Eva; Daigle, Bethany; Magalhaes, Sandra; McDonald, Ted; Miah, Pablo; Somayaji, ChandyItem Rétention des diplômés collégiaux et universitaires au Nouveau-Brunswick(l’Institut de recherche, de données et de formation du Nouveau-Brunswick, 2021-03) McDonald, Ted; Bhuiyan, Erfan; Daigle, Bethany; Miah, PabloLe Nouveau-Brunswick investit considérablement dans l’éducation des étudiants de niveau postsecondaire. Lorsque les diplômés qualifiés quittent la province, beaucoup de cet investissement est perdu, pendant qu’ils apportent avec eux le capital humain et (les gains potentiels) lorsqu’ils se réinstallent. Comprendre quelles sortes de diplômés partent et quelles sortes de diplômés restent, cela peut éclairer les politiques ciblées qui encouragent les diplômés à rester et à contribuer à l’économie locale. De plus, l’estimation des taux de rétention des diplômés peut permettre de déterminer si le N.-B. voit un rendement élevé ou faible de ses investissements. L’objectif du rapport est de présenter une description statistique des personnes qui ont obtenu un diplôme dans les collèges et les universités publics au Nouveau-Brunswick1 : • L’Université du Nouveau-Brunswick (UNB) • L’Université de Moncton (UdeM) • L’Université Mount Allison (MTA) • L’Université St. Thomas (STU) • Le New Brunswick Community College (NBCC) • Le Collège communautaire du Nouveau-Brunswick (CCNB) • Le New Brunswick College of Craft and Design (NBCCD) *Le Collège de technologie forestière est exclus de l’étude.Item Self-employment trends in New Brunswick: 1982-2016(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2020) Miah, Pablo; Leonard, Philip; McDonald, TedIntroduction The aim of this study is to investigate self-employment trends in New Brunswick over the past three decades – specifically, from 1982 to 2016. Accordingly, this report analyzes the characteristics of self-employed individuals in the province by age, gender, region, and average income. Methodology To estimate self-employment in New Brunswick, this study utilizes the Longitudinal Administrative Databank (LAD): a longitudinal dataset of tax files with information on income and basic demographics for a 20% sample of tax filers in Canada. The report defines self-employment in two primary ways: Broad – any individual who files self-employment income (including negative) is deemed to be under broad self-employment. Strict – any individual who files net positive self-employment income greater than 50% of their total income is under strict self-employment. If an individual reports self-employment earnings in one year but not in the previous year, he/she is considered an “entrant” to self-employment. Likewise, if a tax filer files self-employment income in one year but not in the following year, he/she is considered a “leaver” from selfemployment. Report Findings Overall, from 1982 to 2016, the number of individuals in broad self-employment has grown, with around 43,000 individuals self-employed in 2016 (7% of the total population aged 15 years and over) as opposed to 31,000 in 1982 (6%). However, estimates for strict self-employment show some fluctuation over the years, with an increasing trend until 1998 with 19,335 individuals (3.3%) followed by a declining trajectory in recent years (16,090 individuals, or 2.6%). The average strict self-employment rate over the 1982-2016 study period is approximately 3%. More males than females are self-employed under both broad and strict selfemployment definitions. However, due to growth in female self-employment (broad and strict) and a gradual decline in male self-employment (broad and strict), the difference has diminished in recent years. The age group comprised of individuals 45-64 years old has the highest numbers for broad and strict self-employment. On average, this age group holds the highest broad self-employment rates (10%) and strict self-employment rates (4.5%). This implies that older groups comprise a significant portion of self-employment while participation of younger population has rather remained low and steady, perhaps due to the aging demographic of the province. Strict self-employment numbers in the Fredericton, Moncton, and Saint John municipalities have remained steady over the last two decades, following an initial increase. In other regions, strict self-employment numbers have gradually declined. Page 7 However, in relation to population changes in respective regions, self-employment rates have remained relatively stable. Broad and strict self-employment numbers in the fisheries and forestry sectors have decreased by at least 50% between 1982 and 2016. Individuals in broad and strict self-employment have experienced mixed trends in average total income, with broad self-employed individuals earning consistently higher incomes than strict self-employed individuals. By definition, average self-employment income from strict self-employment is significantly higher than that of broad self-employment (in which self-employment may be a parttime job), with average incomes of $28,000 and $12,000, respectively, in 2016.Item Student transition to post-secondary education in New Brunswick: 2014-2019 high school graduates(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2022-05) Gorman-Asal, Madeleine; McDonald, Ted; Miah, Pablo; Mokhtar, RawiaThis study examines the transition of NB high school graduates to post-secondary education (PSE) in New Brunswick from 2014-2017, drawing on enrolment and graduation data from the Department of Education and Early Childhood Development (EECD) and seven public post-secondary institutions. The study considers both students who enter post-secondary education shortly after high school graduation and those who delay entry. It also estimates high school graduation rates and the retention rate of non-pursuers in the province. Understanding the transition decisions of NB high school graduates can help identify where barriers to higher education exist in the province so that investments in PSE can support reducing barriers to educational attainment for New Brunswickers.Item Summary Report: Graduate retention in New Brunswick: 2019 and 2020 cohort update(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2023) Balzer, Andy; McDonald, Ted; Miah, Pablo; Mokhtar, RawiaThis report is the first in a series of annual updates on post-secondary graduates’ retention in New Brunswick (NB) that will be released by the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) each year. These reports provide an overview of NB graduates’ retention patterns since the previous reporting period, and these periodic updates on graduates’ retention trends can help guide public policy discussions around education and training strategies to attract youth to study, work, and live in NB. The current study, which looks at 2019 and 2020 graduate cohorts, updates the graduate retention results published by Bhuiyan et al. (2020), which considered individuals who graduated as recently as 2018. However, two changes in methodology used in this report mean that results presented here are not directly comparable to the previous results (Bhuiyan et al., 2020). The first change is that in this report, the data on university graduates come from the Maritime Provinces Higher Education Commission (MPHEC), rather than the universities themselves. Though graduation numbers are very close between the two sources, data matching rates are lower with the new source. Second, a more conservative definition of retention is adopted in this report, whereby changes in Medicare status prior to an individual’s graduation date are used to assess retention post-graduation. These methodological changes are discussed in more detail in the report, but the net result is that estimated retention rates in this report are somewhat lower than comparable results in the previous report. We therefore present the full historical series of retention rates so that changes over time can be assessed using a consistent methodology.Item Summary Report: Graduate retention in New Brunswick: Supplementary report on graduates in social work(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2023-05) Jones, Bethany; McDonald, Ted; Miah, PabloIn January 2023, the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training released a report called Graduate retention in New Brunswick: 2019 and 2020 cohort update (Balzer et al.), 1 which gave an overview of post-secondary graduates’ retention patterns, disaggregated by their field of study. While this provided many valuable insights into graduates’ education and mobility decisions, the fields of study examined were purposely broad. This allowed for comparison between graduates of programs in arts, science, business, and healthcare, for instance, but it did not allow for a narrower focus on the outcomes of graduates of specific fields of interest. In New Brunswick, social work is one such field of interest. The retention of social work graduates 2 is an important topic in the public sphere, as social work has been identified as the second highest profession in need of a recruitment and retention strategy in New Brunswick, and pre-pandemic projections suggest the province could have a shortage of 272 social workers by 2030 (New Brunswick Association of Social Workers [NBASW], 2022). Given the increased demand for social workers since the start of COVID-19, this shortage could be even greater (NBASW, 2022). This study focuses on the retention of social work graduates in New Brunswick and acts as a supplement to the earlier work by Balzer et al. (2023), using the same data and methodology but further breaking down the field of study category to examine social work specifically. The findings in this report provide an overview of social work graduates’ demographic backgrounds and mobility decisions and can help guide public policy discussions around education and training strategies to retain social workers in NB. 1 Graduate retention in New Brunswick: 2019 and 2020 cohort update (Balzer et al., 2023) 2 In this report, we refer to graduates of university social work programs and college social service community worker programs as “social work graduates.”Item Summary Report: Immigrant Retention in New Brunswick: 2019 and 2020 Arrival Cohorts(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2022-11) McDonald , Ted; Miah, Pablo; Mokhtar, RawiaThis report is the first in a series of annual updates on immigrant retention in New Brunswick each year. These reports provide an overview of NB immigration retention patterns since the previous reporting period. These periodic updates on immigration trends can guide public policy concerned with strategies to attract immigrants and ways to retain established immigrant populations. The current study, which includes data on immigrant cohorts that landed in 2019 and 2020, provides an update to the immigrant retention results released by NB-IRDT in 2021 (McDonald & Miah, 2021), which only included data until 2018.