Faculty & Staff Research

Permanent URI for this community

https://unbscholar.lib.unb.ca/handle/1882/12768

Browse

Now showing 1 - 20 of 123

A Measure of Interregional Redistribution
Ruggeri, G. C.; Yu, Weiqiu
This paper develops a disaggregated index of interregional distribution generated by federal fiscal activity based on a comparison between relative federal revenues and expenditures assigned to various regions and the pattern of income disparities among regions. To explore the properties of this index, we present three special cases under known degrees of distribution and calculate the indices using the Canadian data for 1996. The local indices are then aggregated to derive a global index qf interregional redistribution. Our results show that the federal fiscal system in 1996 delivered a degree of interregional redistribution 1.8 times what would have been generated under equal per capital expenditures by region and nearly half of the redistribution that equalizes the per capita income via federal expenditures.
A National Formulary for Canada
Hollis, Aidan; Law, Stephen, M.
This article analyzes the benefits and costs of replacing Canada's ten different provincial formularies with one single national formulary. The 2002 Romanow Commission on the Future of Health Care in Canada recommended that Canada should have a National Drug Agency which would maintain a national formulary, replacing the existing provincial formularies which balkanize drug markets across Canada. This recommendation has been in part incorporated into the "Common Drug Review" in which the provinces (excluding Québec) have agreed to undertake a single evaluation of all new drugs; provinces, however, retain their own formularies and decide which products to list. This balkanized approach to listing and insurance coverage of drugs substantially weakens the bargaining position of the provinces and leads to higher costs.
A Note on the Probability of Recessions: Can Statistics Cananada's Leading Index Predict as Well as MARS
Sephton, Peter, S.
In this note we estimate the probability of recession using the revised leading index published by Statistics Canada. The results are compared to probabilities derived from a new non-parametric regression routine. While the indexes provide similar information on the probability that the economy is currently in recession, the non-parametric approach appears to offer more reliable information. Two out-of-sample forecasting exercises demonstrate the potential benefits to the use of the multivariate adaptive regression spline model.
A profile of employment across industries in New Brunswick: 1996-2019
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2020) Boco, Eton; Leonard, Philip; McDonald, Ted
This report examines employment and industry changes in New Brunswick (NB) over a 20-year period (1996 to 2016) using data from the Canadian Census. It also examines changes over a ten-year period (2009 to 2019) using data from the Labour Force Survey. Results are stratified by CMA/CA1 and by industry using the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).
A Proposal for Reducing Federal Taxes
Ruggeri, G. C.
Analysis of unmatched immigrants in the BizNet Database
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2020) Leonard, Philip; McDonald, Ted; Miah, Pablo
New Brunswick has been facing the problem of an aging and shrinking population for some time now, and both factors are likely to affect the economy and workforce of the province. To implement measures for proactive population growth and for increasing the size of the labour force, the Government of New Brunswick (GNB) has identified immigration as a key strategy – and while NB has seen a growing number of immigrant arrivals, the retention of landed immigrants must be a primary objective. Identifying trends in immigrant retention, and factors influencing retention, can help decision makers understand how well current policies work and – if required – make necessary changes.
Apprenticeship programs in the Atlantic provinces: Program characteristics, apprentice mobility and earnings
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2017) Emery, Herb; McDonald, Ted; Balcom, Andrew
This report presents descriptive statistics on various dimensions of apprenticeship training in the Atlantic provinces. The report is based on statistics generated by Statistics Canada from a complex individual-level longitudinal dataset linking data from multiple sources including the Registered Apprenticeship Information System, T1 tax files and T4 statements of earnings over the period 2008-2013 inclusive. The longitudinal nature of the data allow mobility to be evaluated, including comparisons of province of study, province of residence and province of work before, during and after apprenticeship training. The report considers three dimensions of apprenticeships: characteristics of participants including demographic characteristics, field of study, and status in the program; mobility of apprentices, comparing province of study with province of employment and province of residence while enrolled and after the program is either completed or discontinued; and earnings of those in the program and those who completed or discontinued the program, with a focus on differences in earnings for movers compared to non-movers. For all three dimensions, results are compared across individuals enrolled in apprenticeship programs in each of the Atlantic provinces.
Asymmetric Firm Entry and Social Inefficiency
Dickson, Vaughan
Breathe: A cost-effectiveness evaluation of breath-based lung cancer screenings
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2022-09) Emery, Herb; Cameron, Jillian; Dutton, Daniel J.; Singh, Paramdeep; Chan, Alvin; McDonald, Ted
Current incidence rates of lung cancer in the United States show that per 100,000 population, lung cancer will occur in 49 women and 60 men. Nearly half a million individuals in the United States were diagnosed with lung cancer between 2013 and 2017, and Canadian prevalence rates are similar: nearly 30,000 people are diagnosed with lung cancer each year. Mortality due to lung cancer is significant as well: approximately 130,000 people in the US and 21,000 people in Canada die annually due to lung cancer. Costs for treatment are also substantial, totaling about $2 billion per year in Canada, or approximately $70,000 per case. The high cost per case of cancer arises from many factors, central among them the advanced stage at diagnosis of many tumors leading to expensive therapies and treatments, costs for formal and informal caregivers, and life-years lost. The incidence and high mortality and costs associated with lung cancer show that lowering both the percentage of people receiving lung cancer diagnoses and the costs of treating lung cancer are important issues for our healthcare systems.
Canadian Newsprint in the United States: A Multivariate Conintegration Analysis
Jee, Keewan; Yu, Weiqiu
In this paper, Johansen multivariate cointegration tests are adopted to investigate the U.S. demand for Canadian newsprint using monthly data from May 1988 to December 1996 Preliminary data analysis shows that all data are non-stationary which implies that previous results based on simple ordinary least squares are spurious. Johansen multivariate cointegration techniques allow for identifying a long-run relationship as well as a short-run relationship via an error correction model. Among the determinants are the export price of Canadian newsprint to the US., the exchange rate between the two countries, US. personal disposable income, and US. newsprint price.
Capital Income Taxation, Labour Supply and Work Effort
Ruggeri, G. C.; Yu, Weiqiu
Although it is well-known that, in life cycle models of consumption and labour supply, capital income taxation affects the labour supply through the normal income effect, this interaction between capital income taxation and labour market behaviour is usually confined to the voluntary savings of consumers who wish to smooth the pattern of consumption through their lifetime. We show in this paper that the interaction maybe widespread. Three channels through which capital income taxation may affect labour market behaviour are identified: first, capital income taxes may alter the lifetime labour supply when workers are constrained on hours of work; second, they may affect labour supply in the case where consumers target a certain level of lifetime consumption; finally, they may influence work effort in an efficiency wage model.
Caractérisation de la population francophone de la région du Grand Saint John (2015- 2020)
(l’Institut de recherche, de données et de formation du Nouveau-Brunswick de l’Université du Nouveau-Brunswick, 2023-02) McDonald, Ted; Balzer, Andy; Cameron, Jillian; Mokhtar, Rawia
Le bilinguisme rend la province du Nouveau-Brunswick (N.-B.) unique au sein du Canada, de par sa forte diversité linguistique et son incroyable richesse culturelle. Cependant, comme le Nouveau-Brunswick est la seule province officiellement bilingue du Canada, certains segments de sa population sont confrontés à des obstacles linguistiques. Par exemple, il n’y a que peu d’information sur la taille de la communauté francophone dont les membres préféreraient un service en français dans les régions à majorité anglophone. Sans cette information, il est, toutefois, impossible de représenter précisément la demande potentielle de services sociaux et de soins de santé en français et de trouver le moyen de répondre à cette demande le plus efficacement possible. Dans ce rapport, nous tentons de remédier aux obstacles linguistiques, particulièrement dans la région du Grand Saint John1 en élaborant un profil de la population francophone de cette région. Pour combler cette lacune au niveau des connaissances et éclairer les discussions sur les obstacles linguistiques au N.-B., les auteurs de ce rapport exposent une analyse de la mesure dans laquelle les services de santé, entre autres services d’aide, peuvent être offerts en français dans les régions à majorité anglophone de la province. Parmi les aspects visés, mentionnons l’état de santé des résidents, l’usage des services de santé, la réception des services sociaux, la composition des ménages et le profil socio-économique du quartier. Nous examinons comment ces aspects ont changé au fil du temps et nous les comparons à celles des Néo-Brunswickois francophones et anglophones qui vivent dans une communauté urbaine majoritairement francophone et des résidents anglophones qui vivent dans la RGSJ, à Moncton et dans le reste du N.-B.2 Étant donné qu’à ce jour, la seule information sur la préférence linguistique que l’on trouve dans les données administratives du N.-B. est tirée des dossiers du système de l’assurance-maladie de la province, il y a des raisons de croire que l’on sous-estime peut-être la préférence linguistique réelle concernant les services de santé. C’est pourquoi nous envisageons des ajustements en fonction des résultats sur les connaissances linguistiques régionales indiqués dans le recensement canadien de 2016.
Characterizing The Francophone Population in Greater Saint John (2015-2020)
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2023-02) McDonald, Ted; Balzer, Andy; Cameron, Jillian; Mokhtar, Rawia
Bilingualism makes the province of New Brunswick (NB) unique within Canada, bringing with it a high level of linguistic diversity and cultural enrichment. However, as Canada’s only officially bilingual province, NB also faces issues of language barriers affecting segments of its population. For instance, there is limited information about the size of the Francophone community that would prefer service in French in majority Anglophone areas. Without this information, it is impossible to accurately represent the potential demand for French-language health and social services and how to meet that demand most efficiently. In this report, we attempt to address language barriers specifically in the Greater Saint John (GSJ) region by constructing a population profile of the Francophone population of GSJ. To fill this knowledge gap and to inform discussions of language barriers in NB, this report supports an analysis of the extent to which health and other support services might be provided in French in majority-Anglophone areas of the province. Measures of interest include residents’ health status, health service use, social services receipt, household composition, and neighbourhood socioeconomic profile. We consider how these measures have changed over time and how they compare for Francophone and Anglophone New Brunswickers living in urban majority-French communities, as well as Anglophone residents living GSJ, Moncton, and the Rest of NB. To date, the only information on language preference in NB administrative data is based on records in the province’s Medicare system, and there is reason to believe this might underestimate actual language preference for health services. As such, we consider adjustments based on measures of area-level language fluency as reported in the 2016 Canadian Census.
Climate Change Plans for Canada: a Full Cost-Benefit Framework for Evaluating Options at the Provincial Level
Lantz, Van; Murrell, David
This paper examines the provincial economic impacts from implementing the Kyoto Protocol in Canada under two policy options currently being considered by the federal government: the Broad-as-Practical and Reference-Package options. Using information from federal documents and academic literature, we find that the federal forecasts of undiscounted GDP losses to provincial economies represent misleading indicators of true economic impacts. We suggest that a more accurate provincial impact analysis of GHG policy options would be based on a net present value framework that incorporates discounted costs and ancillary benefits over the time-frame of the program. Once these elements are accounted for, we find that most provinces would benefit under both policy options, and would prefer the Reference-Package. Specifically, the Reference-Package option reduces provincial burdens of achieving Canada's Kyoto commitment, and may do so at virtually no net efficiency cost relative to the Broad-as-Practical option. These findings emphasize the importance of incorporating both market and non-market values into the policy-making arena.
College and university graduate retention in New Brunswick: 2010 - 2018
(2021-03) McDonald, Ted; Bhuiyan, Erfan; Daigle, Bethany; Miah, Pablo
New Brunswick (NB) invests substantially in educating post-secondary students. When qualified graduates leave the province, much of that investment is lost, as they take their human capital (and potential earnings) with them when they relocate. Understanding what kinds of graduates are leaving and what kinds of graduates are staying can help inform targeted policies that encourage graduates to stay and contribute to the local economy, and estimating graduate retention rates can help determine if NB is seeing a high or low return on its investments. The objective of this report is to present a statistical description of individuals who have graduated from the following publicly funded colleges and universities in NB*: The University of New Brunswick (UNB) Université de Moncton (UdeM) Mount Allison University (MTA) St. Thomas University (STU) New Brunswick Community College (NBCC) Collège communautaire du Nouveau-Brunswick (CCNB) The New Brunswick College of Craft and Design (NBCCD) *The Maritime College of Forest Technology is excluded from this study.
Comparison of socio-economic determinants of COVID-19 testing and positivity in Canada: A multi-provincial analysis
(PLOS, 2023-08-23) Antonova, Lilia; Somayaji, Chandy; Cameron, Jillian; Sirski, Monica; Sundaram, Maria E.; McDonald, James Ted; Mishra, Sharmistha; Kwong, Jeffrey C.; Katz, Alan; Baral, Stefan; Caulley, Lisa; Calzavara, Andrew; Corsten, Martin; Johnson-Obaseki, Stephanie
The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have been more pronounced for socially disadvantaged populations. We sought to determine how access to SARS-CoV-2 testing and the likelihood of testing positive for COVID-19 were associated with demographic factors, socioeconomic status (SES) and social determinants of health (SDH) in three Canadian provinces.
Comparisons of high school equivalency and high school diplomas in NB
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2019) Leonard, Philip; McDonald, Ted; Balzer, Andy
Is getting a GED as “good” as getting a high school diploma? New Brunswickers who drop out of high school but later complete their high school education commonly receive a General Equivalency Diploma – otherwise known as a GED. Some may assume that having a GED or other equivalency degree is comparable to having a high school diploma. Meanwhile, others ask if having a GED is better than having no degree at all. To shed light on this issue, researchers at NB-IRDT look at the evidence surrounding labour market outcomes. This report uses data from the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) from the 2016 General Social Survey to examine labour market outcomes – including employment and average income – for New Brunswickers possessing a high school equivalency diploma, a traditional high school diploma, or less than a high school education. New Brunswickers with levels of education beyond high school are not included in this comparison. Findings show that while employment rates and average incomes for individuals with an equivalency diploma are not as high as for those with a high school diploma, they are considerably higher than those of individuals who did not complete a high school education. At the time of the survey, 51% of individuals with an equivalency diploma were employed, versus 60% with a high school diploma and 31% without a high school education. Individuals with an equivalency diploma were earning approximately $31,742 a year, compared to $32,381 for those with a high school diploma and $19,893 for those without a high school education. Previous studies have asked whether there is any advantage to getting a GED over not getting one at all. The results suggest the answer is “yes” – in the labour market, at least.
Constructing profiles of low-skilled workers in New Brunswick
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2021-07) Bhuiyan, Erfan Mahmood; Leonard, Philip; McDonald, Ted
Introduction The objective of this report is to construct profiles of low-skilled workers in New Brunswick (NB) using different definitions of low skill and to evaluate how these profiles have evolved over time. Profiles include age group, sex, ethnicity, immigration status, employment status, industry, region of residence, and income. Data and Definitions The results of this report are based on the master data files of the 1996, 2001, 2006, and 2016 cycles of the Canadian Census and the 2011 National Household Survey (NHS) available in the Statistics Canada Research Data Centre (RDC) in Fredericton, NB. Overview and Key Findings This report constructs statistical descriptions, or profiles, of low-skilled workers in New Brunswick using three different definitions for low skill: Lack of high school certificate or its equivalent National Occupational Classification (NOC) Skill Level D Annual earnings, based on employment income, in the lowest income quintile Using these definitions for low skill, this report finds the following: 13% of working-age New Brunswickers have less than a high school certificate or equivalent This group earns an annual median income of $21,550 11% of working-age New Brunswickers are employed in NOC Skill Level D occupations This group earns an annual median income of $18,505 16% of working-age New Brunswickers earn less than the lowest income quintile cut-off. This group earns an annual median income of $6,820 Conclusion Understanding who the low-skilled workers in NB are and how the profiles of these individuals have evolved over time will help the government design more targeted programs. Once the most vulnerable groups are identified, it becomes easier to see whether they are taking advantage of existing public programs. According to this report, the groups considered most vulnerable to being low-skilled include women, part-time workers, and New Brunswickers aged 20-24. This information has the potential to help the government examine the impact of existing programs aimed at these individuals and evaluate how such programs can be improved to better serve these likely vulnerable groups.
Convergence in a Small Open Economy
Ruggeri, Giuseppe; Yang, Fan
This paper used data for the ten Canadian provinces to determine whether there was convergence of regional disparities during the 1961-99 period. The results show mixed evidence on convergence. There was convergence of nominal output, but no convergence of real output, per capita or per worker. During the 1984-99 period, there was no convergence of output, per capita or per worker, in nominal and in real terms. However, there was convergence of personal income per capita over the entire period and for the two sub-periods. Government transfers to persons increased the speed of convergence of personal income per capita.
Deep poverty in New Brunswick: A description and national comparisons
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2020) Dutton, Daniel J.
The persistence of poverty – especially deep poverty – in Canada is an important topic for researchers across various disciplines. Deep poverty refers to those living far below the poverty line, which serves as a particularly important measure for government in regard to planning and population health. However, measures of poverty vary across Canada, and it has been suggested that the choice of poverty line is important for tracking poverty and deep poverty over time. In New Brunswick, income poverty is measured using a number of key indicators, including the Market Basket Measure and the Low-Income Measure after tax (LIM). Deep poverty is measured as having an income at 50% or less of the Low-Income Measure (LIM) in a given year. The Canadian poverty line is defined by the Market Basket Measure (MBM). By examining levels of poverty according to both measures (LIM and MBM), we are able to show the impact the choice of definition can have on poverty outcomes – which, in our comparisons, is quite small. We use Census data to map out ten-year trends in poverty (2006-2016) with limited success, as consistent deep poverty measures are not available. The choice of poverty line matters in this comparison. Trends based on the LIM (a relative measure of poverty, which grows with increases in median incomes) imply that poverty in New Brunswick increased over the study period in question. However, trends based on the MBM (an absolute measure of poverty, which grows with inflation) imply that poverty has been decreasing. This difference in outcomes is particularly evident for seniors, whose poverty levels have been increasing according to the LIM and decreasing according to the MBM. These findings suggest that using the LIM as a benchmark implies that deep poverty in seniors may increase simply due to rising median incomes; this does not necessarily indicate a meaningful change in living conditions for the poor. 2016 Census data on immigrant poverty also shows that poverty among immigrants is approximately double that of non-immigrants, with the difference between the groups increasing over time. We find similar correlations between deep poverty and certain variables, regardless of the poverty measure used. Using data from the Canadian Income Survey (CIS) for the years 2012 to 2016, we are able to construct a consistent picture of who is living in deep poverty in New Brunswick. In any given year, there are approximately 100,000 people living below the poverty line in New Brunswick, and approximately 18,000 of them live in deep poverty. Deep poverty is relatively rare for those below the poverty line – affecting close to 1 in 5 people. Over time, the number of people living in deep poverty in New Brunswick has been declining, driven by a notable decrease in 2016. The prevalence of deep poverty also shows a decrease from 2012 to 2016, with most people below the poverty line being quite close to the line. Our findings show that those in deep poverty are more likely to be single, living alone, middle aged, and on social assistance. Having children or being over the age of 65 are both protective of deep poverty due to the additional government transfers that target these households. There seems to be no relationship between sex, geographic region, or education and deep poverty. Finally, French and English speakers show a similar poverty prevalence. Overall, it seems that the definition of poverty used (LIM vs. MBM) is not important for studying the correlates of deep poverty, but it is important for estimating the prevalence of deep poverty. New Brunswick is typical of the Atlantic Region1 in terms of deep poverty characteristics and trends. The Atlantic region in turn is similar to the rest of Canada. Thus, New Brunswick’s challenges are not unique. However, while being on government transfers (e.g., social assistance) and being single are both correlated with deep poverty across the country, this relationship is strongest in the Atlantic provinces, implying a potential avenue for policy intervention. If social assistance, by design, provides a level of support that pushes singles into deep poverty to preserve work incentives, single social assistance recipients will likely continue to live in deep poverty. One government solution to deep poverty would be to raise single social assistance payments to a level above 50% of the LIM. For reference, the 2016 deep poverty threshold is $11,328 for a one-person household. Those who work in our sample are rarely in deep poverty; therefore, those who persist in deep poverty are possibly not transitioning off social assistance for systematic reasons, such as disability. 1The Atlantic region consists of New Brunswick, Newfoundland & Labrador, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island.

Browse

Browsing Faculty & Staff Research by Subject "Economics"

Results Per Page

Sort Options