Open Theses & Dissertations

Permanent URI for this collection

https://unbscholar.lib.unb.ca/handle/1882/12778

Browse

Now showing 1 - 20 of 38

A dynamic model on advertising level and product quality
(University of New Brunswick, 2016) Qi, Chen; Dalkir, Elif
This report studies the relationship between advertising level and product quality where the product is a new non-durable experience good within a signaling game framework. The least cost separating equilibrium of the two period model used in Bagwell (2005) is analyzed without the restriction of advertising being dissipative with repeat business effect. The results are conditionally consistent with Bagwell (2005). Further, advertising level as a signal is assumed to be random variable drawn from Normal and Beta distributions. Consumers update their prior beliefs about the quality of product by Bayes’ distributions. Consumers update their prior beliefs about the quality of product by Bayes’ distributions. Consumers update their prior beliefs about the quality of product by Bayes’ rule after observing the advertising level. We show that pooling equilibria exist with the the the assumption of identical price and marginal costs for high quality and low quality firms. If asymmetric marginal costs are assumed, then the results are consistent with both Nelson (1974) and Schmalensee 1978).
Can distribution services cost explains home bias in trade?
(University of New Brunswick, 2016) Liu, Yunlu; Dalkir, Mehmet
In this report I consider home bias in international trade. Particularly its causes and results. I refer to the earlier work in the trade literature on the relationship between terms of trade, which is the price of traded versus non-traded goods, and home bias in trade. In this report, I follow the methodology followed by Chaban (2011) and choose distribution services as a main factor that is included in terms of trade, and the national border effect that might resolve the home bias issue. The empirical results in the report illustrate that relatively high distribution costs can explain a large observed home trade bias even with low elasticity of substitution between domestically produced goods and foreign goods.
Can macroeconomic variables explain long term movements of stock market sector indices?: A comparison of the US and Canada
(University of New Brunswick, 2018) Bhuiyan, Erfan Mahmood; Chowdhury, Murshed
While the relationship between stock market returns and macro-economic variables has been amply examined, a gap exists in the literature regarding the relationship between different sector indices and various macroeconomic variables. This study intends to examine how certain macroeconomic variables influence different sectors of the stock market differently in the US and Canada. Using monthly data over the period 2000 – 2018, cointegration analysis is applied to model the relationship between real economic activity, money supply, long-term interest rate and different sector indices. Sectors that have been examined in this study include energy, financials, real estate, industrial, healthcare, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, materials, utilities and technology. Results suggest that there is a stable long-term relationship between the macroeconomic variables used in the study and different sector indices for the US but not for Canada. However, US money supply and interest rate can explain the Canadian Stock Market.
Declining labour share in United States and Canada
(University of New Brunswick, 2015) Kozun, Olga; Murrell, David
Contrary to standard economic thinking where it is assumed that factor shares are constant over time, significant amount of evidence suggests that this may not be the case. The focus of this report is to estimate the variation of labour shares for Canada and United States for the last eighty years. In addition, we look at the other national income components, labour share measurement issues, commercial and public sectors labour income shares as well as composition of the wage bill in order to determine possible sources of these changes. The results suggest that the labour shares have been declining for the United States since 1970s and for Canada since 1960s. It is also observed that the trend depends on the definition of labour income share.
Decomposing the gender wage gap
(University of New Brunswick, 2017) Shcherbakov, Dmitry; McDonald, Ted
The gender wage gap persists as an important and controversial topic in various socio-economic agendas and appears as a topic of research in scholarly research regularly. The conventional approach to conducting a gender wage gap assessment is measuring the difference in average earnings between men and women that remains after controlling for various explanatory variables suggested by theory and empirical labor studies. The list of explanatory factors used in particular papers varies depending on the specificity of the population sample, availability of data, research focus and other aspects. Specifically, variation in occupational distribution between men and women in most cases in the literature has been limited to 20-40 fairly broad occupational groups. The inclusion of occupation as an explanatory variable is a controversial approach as it may lead to an undervaluation of the influence of labor market gender segregation tendencies, or, on the opposite, to over-justification of gender-pay differentials. This thesis provides an overview of conventional techniques used for gender wage gap estimations, discusses the importance and appropriateness of occupation as an explanatory variable, and contrasts gender wage gap estimations with and without these controls in the context of the Canadian labor market. Furthermore the thesis tests whether very detailed occupation controls is advantageous compared with a more limited set of broad occupational groups in terms of examination of the wage gap, and suggests evidence for justification of occupational gender segregation that is often perceived as discrimination.
Econometric evaluation of large weather events due to climate change: floods in Atlantic Canada
(University of New Brunswick, 2018) Hetalo, Stanislav; Yevdokimov, Yuri
According to the 5th Annual Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate change will increase the frequency of large weather events such as floods, storm surges, cyclones, hurricanes, high speed winds, thunderstorms, snowstorms, blizzards, extreme temperatures and others. All these events lead to a significant economic damage to property, infrastructure and human health. Historically Atlantic Canada has been vulnerable to flooding. Destructive consequences of the flooding have been seen in the past and are expected to occur in the future specifically as a result of ongoing climate change. The ultimate goal of this study is to establish a relationship between socio-economic, climate change as well as direct flood factors and economic loss from floods in Atlantic Canada. As the first step in reaching this goal, the present study evaluates probability of floods in Atlantic Canada due to hydrological as well as climatological factors first and then tests the hypothesis of an increasing frequency of floods in the future due to climate change. Comprehensive statistical analysis performed in this study is based on the data collected from Canadian Disaster Database, Database of Environmental Departments and Local Governments of Maritime Provinces of Canada and Statistics Canada.
Economic consequences of climate change impacts: the case of Atlantic Canada
(University of New Brunswick, 2016) Nesterova, Iuliia; Yevdokimov, Yuri
Climate change poses wide-reaching challenges for regional economy. We study economic consequences of climate change impacts for Atlantic Canada. Designed economic and statistical models describe relationship between economic performance measure, which is regional value added, and two sets of control variables: economic and climate. Statistical model represents linear multiple regression, set in terms of panel data for five regional transportation with autoregressive term for dependent variable. Obtained results showed the negative effect of rising temperature on regional economic performance: if average annual temperature increases by one degree Celsius, it decreases regional value added by 1.74%. Along with an increase in temperature, the rise of the sea level by 1 meter would reduce regional value added by more than 11% meaning that coastal sub-region in Atlantic Canada is highly vulnerable to weather variation and change in climate patterns.
Economic consequences of floods in Maritime provinces
(University of New Brunswick, 2017) Burina, Iuliia; Yevdokimov, Yuri
Historically Maritime Provinces are vulnerable to flooding events. Destructive consequences of these events have been seen in the past and are expected to occur in the future. The goal of this study is to establish a relationship between socio-economic, climate change and direct flood factors on the one hand and economic losses from floods on the other. The study attempts to assess economic consequences of floods as the most frequent, damagecausing extreme weather event in Maritimes. Evaluation of the above mentioned relationship is done on the basis of regression analysis of the event-by-event cross-sectional data collected from Canadian Disaster Database, database of Environment Departments and Local Governments of Maritime Provinces. The study concludes that economic impact from floods in Maritimes is negative and significant which calls for the design of mitigation measures. In this regard, economic loss from floods represents the upper bound for potential investment into mitigation measures.
Economic impact of utilization of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the province of New Brunswick
(University of New Brunswick, 2015) Zhou, Xiaochen; Yevdokimov, Yuri
In this study, economic impact of liquefied natural gas (LNG) utilization in the province of New Brunswick is analyzed and quantified. First, major economic consequences of LNG utilization for provincial economy are identified. Second, a dynamic demand/supply model of natural gas sector is designed and estimated. Third, the designed model is used to simulate cumulative economic impact of LNG utilization in the province. Finally, simulated data is used to calculate annual long-run increase in value added, tax revenue and job creation due to a one percent increase in LNG utilization in the province of New Brunswick.
Evolutionary dynamics of precipitation in Atlantic Canada
(University of New Brunswick, 2015) Kosenchuk, Sergiy; Yevdokimov, Yuri
We model long run dynamics of precipitation at five transportation hubs in Atlantic Canada. In doing so, we designed methodology and applied it to twelve precipitation time series – six rainfall series and six snowfall series. Eleven out of twelve time series were estimated with OLS, and only Saint John rainfall series was estimated with GLM to deal with non-normal distribution of error terms. Based on our methodology and estimation, we detected that four precipitation series do not contain significant time trends over the latest period: Three of them are rainfall series with one snowfall series. Six out of remaining eight precipitation series do contain significant time trends that started in 1950s-1960s or 1980s. Moreover, we have similar trends of -3 mm per year in three snowfall series. All of them have started in 1950s-1960s. This result directly points towards potential climate change in the region and supports the conclusion of many climatologists of less snow in Atlantic Canada due to climate change. In general, our estimation showed that snowfall series are more deterministic, and they exhibit negative trends. Rainfall series are less predictable exhibiting either negative or positive trend.
Exploring the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in North America and China
(University of New Brunswick, 2016) Zhang, Yifeng; Dalkir, Mehmet
This report explores the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in North America and China during the post-crisis period. It is found that there is a stable long-run relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in Canada and China, but not for the US. Another finding is that Canadian exchange rates and stock prices exhibit bi-directional Granger causality, which supports both “flow-orientated” model and “stock-orientated” model. Conversely, the two financial variables in China interact in a manner consistent with the “flow-orientated” model. On the other hand, no Granger causality is found between these two financial variables for the US in either direction. Finally, this report provides a few implications for monetary policy makers and global investors.
Factors that influence the likelihood of smoking initiation in Canada
(University of New Brunswick, 2016) Zeng, Fanye; Farnworth, Michael
Duration analysis and a few different econometric functional forms are used to examine when people smoke a whole cigarette for the first time. This information is reported in the Survey on Smoking in Canada which was collected in 1994 and 1995 in part due to an abrupt drop in cigarette taxes and other attempts to close illegal markets for this substance. The findings suggest that the closing of smuggling markets had a stronger effect than the abrupt drop in price. The results also suggest that after statistically controlling for variation in other factors the hazard of smoking for the first time is particularly high for the age groups 12 to 15 and 16 to 19. Furthermore people with higher education are less likely to initiate smoking and males are more likely to initiate smoking than females.
Home ownership as a means to retain immigrants in Atlantic Canada
(University of New Brunswick, 2016) Thomas, Anu; McDonald, Ted
Various policy measures have been put in place to attract and retain newcomers to Atlantic Canada but the policies have met with limited success. Using the Longitudinal Survey of Immigrants to Canada, this paper examines the relationship between housing status and inter-provincial migrations. It examines the capacity of entry to home ownership as a means to retain human capital within a region and reverse demographic trends. The literature review examines characteristics of new immigrants and the potential for Atlantic Canada to use its housing market to anchor newcomers in the region. Results indicate a strong correlation between the initial province of residence and the province of address four years later. Immigrant households show a high rate of transition from tenancy to ownership and this may deter their interprovincial mobility. In comparison to other regions, Atlantic Canada has generally more affordable housing, and a significantly lower proportion of individuals spending over 50% of their income across different levels of housing.
Impacts of crop rotation and tillage practices on potato yield and revenue in northern New Brunswick, Canada
(University of New Brunswick, 2015) Liu, Eric Ye; Lantz, Van; Olale, Edward
This study investigated the effects of crop rotation and tillage practices on potato yield across nine farms and 72 fields in the Black Brook Watershed, northwestern New Brunswick, Canada, from 2006 to 2012. Specifically, a stochastic production function method was used to assess the manner in which five alternative crop rotations and three alternative tillage practices influenced mean, per acre, potato yields in each field along with other farm inputs, site characteristics, and climate factors. Overall, crop rotation and tillage practices had mixed effects on potato yield. For instance, with regard to crop rotations, a one potato in three year (l-in-3) rotation had the highest yield, followed by 2-in-3, 2-in-4, l-in-2 (the primary rotation system used by producers), and 3-in-4 rotations. On a comparable, 12-year horizon, a 2-in-3 rotation resulted in the largest present value revenue, followed by 3-in-4, 2-in-4, l-in-2, and l-in-3 rotations. Meanwhile, with regard to tillage practices, spring tillage had negative yield effects compared to fall tillage (the primary tillage practice), and the use of harrow and chisel plowing had positive yield effects. These findings indicate that the implementation of best management practices (e.g., spring tillage and l-in-3 rotations) often lead to lower yield and/or lower revenues and therefore need to be supported by governments through financial or other such incentives. Key words: Best management practices, conservation tillage, crop rotation, potato yield, Northwestern New Brunswick.
Impaired driving: how effective are Canada’s impaired driving laws
(University of New Brunswick, 2015) Olalekan, Adio; McDonald, Ted
Impaired driving has been a major cause of death and injuries in Canada for decades, and in response a succession of laws has been put in place to reduce cases of impaired driving. This report evaluates the effectiveness of a number of recent changes to impaired laws using econometric methods applied to a Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) level dataset over a 12-year period and makes recommendations about what approaches might be introduced in the future to reduce the cases of impaired driving. Results indicated that after controlling for changes in demographic, socioeconomic and geographic characteristics, as well as a secular trend in reduction in incidence over time, measures enacted to reduce the blood alcohol content level before charges applied and the duration of license suspension had no appreciable effect on the incidence of impaired driving. In addition, results indicated that police concentration appeared to have a positive effect on impaired driving incidence, likely indicating an increase in detection rather than any changes in underlying driver behavior.
Income and happiness: evidence on urban, rural and rural-urban migrant population in China
(University of New Brunswick, 2017) Bi, Ran; Chowdhury, Murshed
Using the Chinese Household Income Project (CHIP) survey for 2013, this paper examines the relationship between income and happiness of China’s urban, rural and migrant population. The dataset consists of a random sample of over 39,858 individuals from the Chinese population. Happiness here is measured by a five-point categorical measure of overall happiness (not happy at all, not very happy, so-so, happy, very happy), and an OLS model is used to identify the potential determinants of happiness among these different subsections of the Chinese population. According to the study, urban households report the highest household income and overall well-being, while the rural households report the lowest household income and overall well-being; the household income and overall well-being of migrant households positions them in the middle range. Despite a positive correlation between income and happiness, absolute income plays only a limited role in determining happiness. Demographic characteristics, unemployment, household net financial assets, accession of social welfare and relative income also influence an individual’s happiness. The findings clarify the various reasons for happiness and point to the importance of both economic and social policies in improving the happiness of Chinese people.
International trade and the border effect between Canada and United States
(University of New Brunswick, 2016) Huang, Fei; Dalkir, Mehmet
The trade relationship between Canada and the United States is intense under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Canada and the U.S. are mutually the largest trade partners. However, McCallum (1995) stated that trade between provinces is about 20 times larger than trade between any particular province and state. The national border has significant effects on the trade between Canada and the United States. This study follows McCallum’s methodology to explore how border effects changed from 1991 to 2011. Border effects between Canada and the U.S. is declining with the development of economy and policy change. Moreover, New Brunswick surprisingly has lower border effect with states of the U.S. compared to other provinces of Canada.
Long-run unemployment: natural or epiphenomenal?
(University of New Brunswick, 2016) El Armali, Jafar; Myatt, Anthony
The “natural rate of unemployment” (NRU) hypothesis has been the dominant hypothesis on long-run unemployment for many decades, despite lots of evidence against it. In this report, the main criticisms of the NRU hypothesis will be surveyed, and an alternative hypothesis – hysteresis – will be presented and explored. This is followed by a survey of the different ways of empirically testing the NRU hypothesis against the hysteresis hypothesis, and the results of these tests. These results show that neither hypothesis has conclusive empirical support. Hence, hysteresis cannot be ignored in favor of the NRU. Finally, we carry out some preliminary tests using provincial unemployment rate data and show that “hysteresis” may be affecting unemployment in most of the provinces.
Risk factors associated with alcohol abuse in Canada: longitudinal national population health survey
(University of New Brunswick, 2016) Zhang, Quanxin; Farnworth, M.G.
Alcohol beverages are popular across Canada and approximately 3.2% of the Canadian population who are older than 15 abused alcohol or were dependent on this substance in 2012 (Canadian Centre on Substance Abuse, 2014, p. 1). Furthermore the estimated total cost of alcohol-related harm to Canadians was $14.6 billion per year (Canadian Centre on Substance Abuse, 2014, p. 1). Discrete duration analysis and a few different econometric functional forms are used to examine transition from moderate to heavy drinking based on the longitudinal National Population Health Survey which consists of nine cycles collected between 1994 and 2011. The findings suggest that after statistically controlling for variation in other factors men are more likely to become heavy drinkers than women and individuals who are between 15 and 34 years old are more likely to become heavy drinkers than people in older age groups. With regard to gender differences, smoking is a significant risk factor for alcohol abuse, especially among women. Furthermore under some particular circumstances the likelihood of becoming a heavy drinker is similar among men and women.
Socio-economic determinants of electricity prices in New Brunswick: a hedonic price approach
(University of New Brunswick, 2017) Getalo, Viktor; Yevdokimov, Yuri
Currently, electricity markets around the world are being reformed to provide more competition in generation and more options and alternatives for customers to choose electricity supplier from various generating companies. Therefore, identification of customer needs is the biggest challenge for those companies. Our study addresses this issue for the New Brunswick electricity market via hedonic price approach – one of the most popular revealed preferences methods. According to this approach, the price of electricity is viewed through its attributes which are divided into four groups: economic, technical, social and environmental. Our empirical analysis has shown that demand side determinants of electricity are as significant as supply side. In addition to traditional determinants such as household income and technical characteristics, environmental and climate variables have also a significant influence on electricity prices which calls for the design of new electricity products.

Browse

Browsing Open Theses & Dissertations by Subject "Economics"

Results Per Page

Sort Options