New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training Publications

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The collection of research from the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) spans diverse topics crucial to public policy, health, education, and social wellbeing in New Brunswick. Research topics include healthcare utilization outcomes, immigrant retention, teacher recruitment, socioeconomic determinants of health, environmental impacts on public health, among many others, providing a deeper understanding of the factors influencing the prosperity and health of New Brunswick communities.

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Putting geographic variation in surgical procedures on the map: Geographic variation in coronary artery bypass and hip and knee replacement surgeries in the Maritime provinces
(Maritime SPOR Support Unit, 2016) Levy, Adrian; McDonald, James Ted; Krause, Juergen; Leonard, Philip; Stock, David; Campbell-McNamara, Sarah; MacSwain, Mary-Ann; Patterson, Michelle; Robinson, Bryn
MSSU researchers from three Maritime provinces compared the distribution and organization of treatments for total hip and knee arthroplasty and cardiac surgical procedures across different regions of the province;evaluated how patient outcomes vary within and across jurisdictions and as a function of travel times to the hospital; and evaluated how cost and performance measures vary across hospitals offering these services within the province.
Summary Report: Temporary residents in New Brunswick and their transition to permanent residency
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2017) Emery, Herb; McDonald, Ted; Balcom, Andrew
How well does New Brunswick attract Temporary Residents? And how many become Permanent Residents? With a declining population and slow economic growth, New Brunswick is seeking to boost growth in both areas by increasing the number of immigrants settling in the province. Research from Statistics Canada suggests that Temporary Foreign Workers are less likely to settle in the Atlantic provinces than in the rest of Canada. However, this research does not examine provincial variations in the attraction of Temporary Residents and Foreign Workers and transition to Permanent Residency in the Atlantic region. Knowing the characteristics and transition rates of Temporary Residents would allow the New Brunswick government to better identify gaps and opportunities to improve immigration policies. In this report, researchers from the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) use data from the Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) database to describe the characteristics of Temporary Residents and Temporary Foreign Workers in New Brunswick as well as retention rates and the rate of transitions to Permanent Resident status. Results show that from 2000 to 2013, the number of Temporary Residents in New Brunswick has been increasing at the same rate as that of Canada. However, if one considers the the population size of NB alongside the proportion of immigrants in New Brunswick, it becomes apparent that the number of Temporary Residents in New Brunswick is underrepresented, with New Brunswick seemingly holding less attraction for them. Yet, while New Brunswick appears to be less attractive to Temporary Residents than the other Atlantic provinces it also has a higher rate of transition to Permanent Residency than the Canadian rate. Similarly, Permanent Residents who stay in New Brunswick for one year after transitioning show fairly persistent retention rates. These results suggest that the New Brunswick labour market may have the capacity to absorb more Permanent Residents because it does not receive a proportion of Temporary Residents equal to its proportion of the Atlantic population.
The economic impacts of migrating from New Brunswick to Alberta/Saskatchewan and return to New Brunswick
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2017) Emery, Herb; McDonald, Ted; Morissette, René
Are New Brunswickers who leave the province for work any better off if/when they return? For many years now, large numbers of young, working-age New Brunswickers have migrated to other provinces for work. While the most popular Canadian destinations for New Brunswickers in the past were Ontario, Nova Scotia, and Quebec, this has changed over the past 20 years, with New Brunswickers migrating more frequently to Alberta and Saskatchewan – likely due to growth and employment opportunities in the oil and gas industry. There is a general assumption that New Brunswickers who leave the province to work elsewhere are better off when they return. But does the evidence suggest this is true? To answer this question, researchers at the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) use Statistics Canada tax-filer data to compare the characteristics and earnings of New Brunswickers who migrate Alberta/Saskatchewan and then return (i.e., “Returners”) against those of - NB workers who migrate and remain in AB/SK (“Permanent Migrants”) - NB workers who remained in NB. (“Stayers”) and - NB workers who migrate to Alberta/Saskatchewan and then return ("returners") Results show that Returners and Permanent Migrants experienced equally advantageous earnings gains from migrating to AB/SK. There are many possibilities why this is the case. It is possible that Returners are penalized by diminished opportunities. Perhaps they are less motivated to work for lower earnings. Maybe they accumulated enough savings to work fewer hours. These findings suggest that policies aiming to boost economic growth through increased GDP, immigration, and return migration in New Brunswick should focus on increasing labour demand, rather than marketable human capital.
Temporary residents in New Brunswick and their transition to permanent residency
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2017) Emery, Herb; McDonald, Ted; Balcom, Andrew
How well does New Brunswick attract Temporary Residents? And how many become Permanent Residents? With a declining population and slow economic growth, New Brunswick is seeking to boost growth in both areas by increasing the number of immigrants settling in the province. Research from Statistics Canada suggests that Temporary Foreign Workers are less likely to settle in the Atlantic provinces than in the rest of Canada. However, this research does not examine provincial variations in the attraction of Temporary Residents and Foreign Workers and transition to Permanent Residency in the Atlantic region. Knowing the characteristics and transition rates of Temporary Residents would allow the New Brunswick government to better identify gaps and opportunities to improve immigration policies. In this report, researchers from the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) use data from the Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) database to describe the characteristics of Temporary Residents and Temporary Foreign Workers in New Brunswick as well as retention rates and the rate of transitions to Permanent Resident status. Results show that from 2000 to 2013, the number of Temporary Residents in New Brunswick has been increasing at the same rate as that of Canada. However, if one considers the the population size of NB alongside the proportion of immigrants in New Brunswick, it becomes apparent that the number of Temporary Residents in New Brunswick is underrepresented, with New Brunswick seemingly holding less attraction for them. Yet, while New Brunswick appears to be less attractive to Temporary Residents than the other Atlantic provinces it also has a higher rate of transition to Permanent Residency than the Canadian rate. Similarly, Permanent Residents who stay in New Brunswick for one year after transitioning show fairly persistent retention rates. These results suggest that the New Brunswick labour market may have the capacity to absorb more Permanent Residents because it does not receive a proportion of Temporary Residents equal to its proportion of the Atlantic population.
New Brunswick population snapshot
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2017) Peters, Paul
What will the population of New Brunswick look like in the coming years? New Brunswick has one of Canada’s fastest aging populations and lowest levels of in-migration, along with declining fertility rates. A shrinking population presents a challenge to economic growth and has significant implications for other factors, such as the province’s healthcare system, tax base, and social support. Thus, population decline in New Brunswick has been a salient political concern for many years now. Researchers at the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) have been analyzing provincial population trends for a number of years. Earlier reports suggested the province’s population would continue to shift due to inter-provincial outmigration, with growth concentrated in cities through rural to urban migration. More recent reports using newly available 2016 Census data update the population statistics, accounting for the fact that New Brunswick experienced an overall population decline from 2011 to 2016. In these reassessments of population forecasts for small areas in New Brunswick, results are more negative than those of the 2017 reports – possibly due to data reflecting the sluggish provincial economy following the 2008 recession. The most current population forecasts suggest net migration is the main driver of population growth; and while the cities of Moncton and Fredericton are predicted to see population increases, the remaining areas in New Brunswick will arguably see either population decline or stagnation. The labour force is likely to follow the same trends as the general population. The authors argue that these trends could reflect a cyclical population downturn that will eventually reverse itself with renewed population growth; or they could indicate a future trend of population decline. Ongoing research may be able to tell.
Small-area population forecasts for New Brunswick
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2017) Peters, Paul
What will the population of New Brunswick look like in the coming years? New Brunswick has one of Canada’s fastest aging populations and lowest levels of in-migration, along with declining fertility rates. A shrinking population presents a challenge to economic growth and has significant implications for other factors, such as the province’s healthcare system, tax base, and social support. Thus, population decline in New Brunswick has been a salient political concern for many years now. Researchers at the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) have been analyzing provincial population trends for a number of years. Earlier reports suggested the province’s population would continue to shift due to inter-provincial outmigration, with growth concentrated in cities through rural to urban migration. More recent reports using newly available 2016 Census data update the population statistics, accounting for the fact that New Brunswick experienced an overall population decline from 2011 to 2016. In these reassessments of population forecasts for small areas in New Brunswick, results are more negative than those of the 2017 reports – possibly due to data reflecting the sluggish provincial economy following the 2008 recession. The most current population forecasts suggest net migration is the main driver of population growth; and while the cities of Moncton and Fredericton are predicted to see population increases, the remaining areas in New Brunswick will arguably see either population decline or stagnation. The labour force is likely to follow the same trends as the general population. The authors argue that these trends could reflect a cyclical population downturn that will eventually reverse itself with renewed population growth; or they could indicate a future trend of population decline. Ongoing research may be able to tell.
Summary Report: The economic impacts of migrating from New Brunswick to Alberta/Saskatchewan and return to New Brunswick
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2017) Emery, Herb; McDonald, Ted; Morissette, René
Are New Brunswickers who leave the province for work any better off if/when they return? For many years now, large numbers of young, working-age New Brunswickers have migrated to other provinces for work. While the most popular Canadian destinations for New Brunswickers in the past were Ontario, Nova Scotia, and Quebec, this has changed over the past 20 years, with New Brunswickers migrating more frequently to Alberta and Saskatchewan – likely due to growth and employment opportunities in the oil and gas industry. There is a general assumption that New Brunswickers who leave the province to work elsewhere are better off when they return. But does the evidence suggest this is true? To answer this question, researchers at the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) use Statistics Canada tax-filer data to compare the characteristics and earnings of New Brunswickers who migrate Alberta/Saskatchewan and then return (i.e., “Returners”) against those of - NB workers who migrate and remain in AB/SK (“Permanent Migrants”) - NB workers who remained in NB. (“Stayers”) and - NB workers who migrate to Alberta/Saskatchewan and then return ("returners") Results show that Returners and Permanent Migrants experienced equally advantageous earnings gains from migrating to AB/SK. There are many possibilities why this is the case. It is possible that Returners are penalized by diminished opportunities. Perhaps they are less motivated to work for lower earnings. Maybe they accumulated enough savings to work fewer hours. These findings suggest that policies aiming to boost economic growth through increased GDP, immigration, and return migration in New Brunswick should focus on increasing labour demand, rather than marketable human capital.
Summary Report: Apprenticeship programs in the Atlantic provinces: Program characteristics, apprentice mobility and earnings
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2017) Emery, Herb; McDonald, Ted; Balcom, Andrew
This report presents descriptive statistics on various dimensions of apprenticeship training in the Atlantic provinces. The report is based on statistics generated by Statistics Canada from a complex individual-level longitudinal dataset linking data from multiple sources including the Registered Apprenticeship Information System, T1 tax files and T4 statements of earnings over the period 2008-2013 inclusive. The longitudinal nature of the data allow mobility to be evaluated, including comparisons of province of study, province of residence and province of work before, during and after apprenticeship training. The report considers three dimensions of apprenticeships: characteristics of participants including demographic characteristics, field of study, and status in the program; mobility of apprentices, comparing province of study with province of employment and province of residence while enrolled and after the program is either completed or discontinued; and earnings of those in the program and those who completed or discontinued the program, with a focus on differences in earnings for movers compared to non-movers. For all three dimensions, results are compared across individuals enrolled in apprenticeship programs in each of the Atlantic provinces.
Apprenticeship programs in the Atlantic provinces: Program characteristics, apprentice mobility and earnings
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2017) Emery, Herb; McDonald, Ted; Balcom, Andrew
This report presents descriptive statistics on various dimensions of apprenticeship training in the Atlantic provinces. The report is based on statistics generated by Statistics Canada from a complex individual-level longitudinal dataset linking data from multiple sources including the Registered Apprenticeship Information System, T1 tax files and T4 statements of earnings over the period 2008-2013 inclusive. The longitudinal nature of the data allow mobility to be evaluated, including comparisons of province of study, province of residence and province of work before, during and after apprenticeship training. The report considers three dimensions of apprenticeships: characteristics of participants including demographic characteristics, field of study, and status in the program; mobility of apprentices, comparing province of study with province of employment and province of residence while enrolled and after the program is either completed or discontinued; and earnings of those in the program and those who completed or discontinued the program, with a focus on differences in earnings for movers compared to non-movers. For all three dimensions, results are compared across individuals enrolled in apprenticeship programs in each of the Atlantic provinces.
Push or pull into self employment? Evidence from Longitudinal Canadian Tax Data
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2017-08) Leonard, Philip S.J.; Emery, J.C. Herbert; McDonald, James Ted
Does the choice of self-employment over paid employment reflect that individuals are “pushed” into self-employment by negative economic conditions or “pulled” in by strong economic prospects? Using longitudinal Canadian taxfiler data, we show that the self-employment rate has been very stable over the past decade in spite of the large increase in unemployment rate associated with the 2008 recession. The lack of cyclical association of self-employment rates suggests that self-employment rates are the product of structural and demographic influences in the economy.
Small-area population forecasts for New Brunswick with 2016 Census Data: Simplified model report
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2018) Peters, Paul; Balzer, Andy; Daigle, Bethany
What will the population of New Brunswick look like in the coming years? New Brunswick has one of Canada’s fastest aging populations and lowest levels of in-migration, along with declining fertility rates. A shrinking population presents a challenge to economic growth and has significant implications for other factors, such as the province’s healthcare system, tax base, and social support. Thus, population decline in New Brunswick has been a salient political concern for many years now. Researchers at the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) have been analyzing provincial population trends for a number of years. Earlier reports suggested the province’s population would continue to shift due to inter-provincial outmigration, with growth concentrated in cities through rural to urban migration. More recent reports using newly available 2016 Census data update the population statistics, accounting for the fact that New Brunswick experienced an overall population decline from 2011 to 2016. In these reassessments of population forecasts for small areas in New Brunswick, results are more negative than those of the 2017 reports – possibly due to data reflecting the sluggish provincial economy following the 2008 recession. The most current population forecasts suggest net migration is the main driver of population growth; and while the cities of Moncton and Fredericton are predicted to see population increases, the remaining areas in New Brunswick will arguably see either population decline or stagnation. The labour force is likely to follow the same trends as the general population. The authors argue that these trends could reflect a cyclical population downturn that will eventually reverse itself with renewed population growth; or they could indicate a future trend of population decline. Ongoing research may be able to tell.
Will a higher minimum wage decrease poverty in New Brunswick?
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2018) Boyle, Emily; Daigle, Bethany; McRae, Sarah
What is the best way to reduce poverty in New Brunswick? In recent years, there have been increasing public debates across Canada about the need to implement new policy levers to tackle the problem of poverty. These have largely taken the form of advocacy for accelerated minimum wage increases – specifically to $15 an hour. With the provinces of Alberta, Ontario, and British Columbia raising (or promising to raise) the minimum wage to $15/hour in 2018, 2019, and 2021, respectively, other Canadian provinces have debated whether they should follow suit. In Fredericton, New Brunswick, a media movement called “Fight for 15 Fredericton” is emulating the original “Fight for 15” initiated by New York City fast-food workers in 2012 – and is hoping to meet with the same success. However, it is important to gather evidence predicting the impact such an increase in minimum wage would have for New Brunswick. Would an increase similar to those in Ontario, Alberta, and British Columbia produce positive or negative results for the region? What outcomes would this kind of increase have on the rate and depth of poverty in New Brunswick? And would a different policy prove more effective? This report, produced by the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, reviews the evidence surrounding minimum wage increases, living wage policies, taxes and transfers, and Universal Guaranteed Basic Income policies to assess how these instruments might impact poverty levels in New Brunswick. The authors find that a higher minimum wage is unlikely to significantly reduce poverty, whereas an income-based prorated Universal Guaranteed Basic Income might be the most far-reaching effective poverty reduction strategy – especially when implemented alongside current tax and transfer policies.
Small-area population forecasts for New Brunswick with 2016 Census Data: Cohort-component model
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2018) Peters, Paul; Balzer, Andy; Daigle, Bethany
What will the population of New Brunswick look like in the coming years? New Brunswick has one of Canada’s fastest aging populations and lowest levels of in-migration, along with declining fertility rates. A shrinking population presents a challenge to economic growth and has significant implications for other factors, such as the province’s healthcare system, tax base, and social support. Thus, population decline in New Brunswick has been a salient political concern for many years now. Researchers at the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) have been analyzing provincial population trends for a number of years. Earlier reports suggested the province’s population would continue to shift due to inter-provincial outmigration, with growth concentrated in cities through rural to urban migration. More recent reports using newly available 2016 Census data update the population statistics, accounting for the fact that New Brunswick experienced an overall population decline from 2011 to 2016. In these reassessments of population forecasts for small areas in New Brunswick, results are more negative than those of the 2017 reports – possibly due to data reflecting the sluggish provincial economy following the 2008 recession. The most current population forecasts suggest net migration is the main driver of population growth; and while the cities of Moncton and Fredericton are predicted to see population increases, the remaining areas in New Brunswick will arguably see either population decline or stagnation. The labour force is likely to follow the same trends as the general population. The authors argue that these trends could reflect a cyclical population downturn that will eventually reverse itself with renewed population growth; or they could indicate a future trend of population decline. Ongoing research may be able to tell.
The cost of occupational cancer in New Brunswick
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2018) Holland, Margaret; Balram, Adele; Boudreau, Jonathan; McDonald, Ted
The Firefighter’s Compensation Act (2009) — which granted firefighters presumptive coverage for select sites of primary cancer (i.e., bladder, brain, colorectal, kidney, leukemia, lung, non Hodgkin’s lymphoma, oesophageal, testicular, and ureter) — has both established precedent for workers in New Brunswick (NB) and liability for the Workers’ Compensation (WC) system. While occupational cancer has been shown to exert health and economic burden in other jurisdictions, little research has examined the health and economic burden of occupational cancer in New Brunswick. The aim of this study is to help fill that gap. Specifically, the goal of this report is to use what data are available to characterize the costs of cancer generally, which are then useful for providing an estimate of a cost range for a number of occupationally-related cancers. The study made use of administrative health data held at the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) for the period from 2008-2013 (the most recent available). Cancer patients were identified from the New Brunswick Provincial Cancer Registry (NBPCR), a population based cancer registry. An estimated 19,861 incident (new) cases of cancer were diagnosed during the study period. The most common incident cancers in the analytical sample were breast, prostate, lung, colon, and skin, comprising 66% of all incident cancers from 2008 to 2013. Data on the cost and frequency of acute inpatient hospitalization were obtained from the New Brunswick Discharge Abstract Database (DAD). The DAD contains demographic, administrative, and clinical data on acute care institution separations in the province. The study utilized a phase of-care based approach to costing: inpatient hospitalizations were assigned to one of two clinically-relevant phases of care: the treatment phase (the 18-month period following the date of cancer diagnosis) and the terminal phase (last 12 months of life). Acute inpatient hospitalization costs varied by cancer site, stage of disease, phase of care, and age group. Expected costs of acute inpatient hospitalizations during the treatment phase were lowest for breast cancer ($9,441) and highest for leukemia ($35,963). Expected costs of acute inpatient hospitalizations during the terminal phase were lowest for kidney cancer ($17,044) and highest for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma ($49,028). More in-depth analysis of cancer care costs in New Brunswick is limited by the nature and availability of relevant health care service utilization and cost data. As cancer patients journey through the provincial healthcare system, they use a variety of outpatient and community-based health care services. However, New Brunswick data on these aspects of a cancer patient’s journey (i.e., physician services, pharma care, diagnostic testing, emergency services, home care, long-term care, and hospice care) are limited. These components of cancer care have been shown to be important drivers of cost, accounting for anywhere from 36% to 62% of mean per patient cancer care cost in Ontario for patients who survived less or more than 12 months from diagnosis, respectively. As outpatient- and community-based health cancer care can also be expected to be important cost drivers in New Brunswick, estimates including these components were simulated by site and stage of cancer for the ‘typical’ patient following ‘standard treatment’ under various scenarios (high, medium, and low cost) using available data (e.g., fee schedules, collective agreements, peer-reviewed scholarly articles, and clinical treatment guidelines). The simulated expected costs were lowest for prostate cancer ($20,894) and highest for brain cancer ($92,597). Simulated cost modeling creates a foundation to further understanding of and research on the nature of the cancer burden in the province. However, simulated cost estimates for the ‘typical’ patient are not a substitute for estimates based on real health care service utilization data. More information and real patient- and systems-level data are needed to fully appreciate the cost implications of a case of cancer in New Brunswick for health care and wellness planning and for evaluating the appropriateness and effectiveness of cancer care delivered throughout New Brunswick. The study identifies other knowledge gaps in the cancer registry data. For example, while most cancer patients in New Brunswick begin involvement with the cancer care system via diagnostic tests that describe extent and severity (cancer staging) of their disease, limited staging information is reported to the provincial cancer registry (i.e., only breast, colon, lung, prostate, and rectal cancers are staged in the NBPCR). Research in other jurisdictions suggests that these disease distinctions are important to fully understand cancer burden. As such, staging information is important for evaluating the effectiveness of prevention programming and cancer care delivered throughout New Brunswick. Another limitation of the existing cancer registry infrastructure is that the provincial and national cancer registries do not collect workplace and exposure information. This information gap has two noticeable effects. First, known (and suspected) cases of occupational cancer are not identifiable outside of insurance claims data. Second, it difficult to estimate the extent of occupational exposure to carcinogens and the impact(s) of such exposure in the province. Studies from other jurisdictions have suggested that up to 40% of the workforce may be exposed to carcinogenic agents at the workplace or in an occupation. This data is essential for understanding the nature of the occupational cancer burden and for evaluating the effectiveness of workplace health and safety cancer prevention initiatives in the province.
Rapport récapitulatif: L’utilisation des bibliothèques publiques au Nouveau-Brunswick, de 2010 à 2018
(l’Institut de recherche, de données et de formation du Nouveau-Brunswick, 2019) Emery, Herb; Daigle, Bethany; McDonald, Ted
Immigrant retention in New Brunswick: Results from BizNet and Citizen Database
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2019) Leonard, Philip; McDonald, Ted; Miah, Pablo
How many immigrants typically land in New Brunswick? And how many stay? In an effort to boost the population and economy of New Brunswick, the provincial government has invested many resources in attracting and retaining immigrants. One such initiative is the Provincial Nomination Program (PNP), which accelerates the immigration and Permanent Resident application process for skilled workers and immigrants (and their family members) with experience in business. In this report, researchers from the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) use linked data from BizNet and the Citizen Database to investigate the number of landings (2001-2017) and retention rates (2005-2017) of immigrations in New Brunswick, focusing in particular on immigrants who arrived through the PNP. Results show that the number of Provincial Nominees has been steadily rising since 2005, reaching over 950 a year in 2017. Meanwhile, of the Nominees in New Brunswick long enough to receive a Medicare number, 75% remain in province one year later; 60% remain 3 years later, and less than 50% remain 5 years later. Report findings indicate that New Brunswick retains approximately 64% of targeted immigrants through the PNP. Findings also show that the largest number of Provincial Nominees has consistently come from China, though the number from the Philippines has been increasing rapidly since 2016. Immigrants from the Philippines also have the highest retention rates. Future updates to the Citizen Database and BizNet datasets will make it possible to analyze retention rates of applicants through the Atlantic Immigration Pilot as well.
L’utilisation des bibliothèques publiques au Nouveau-Brunswick, de 2010 à 2018
(l’Institut de recherche, de données et de formation du Nouveau-Brunswick, 2019) Emery, Herb; Daigle, Bethany; McDonald, Ted
Summary Report: The use of public libraries in New Brunswick, 2010-2018
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2019) Emery, Herb; Daigle, Bethany; McDonald, Ted
Can public libraries remain relevant in an era of lightning-fast Internet access, Kindle e-books, and Amazon Prime’s 2-day book deliveries? Most New Brunswickers admit to loving their public libraries, but how many actually use them? Studies show that public libraries provide valuable social capital within their communities. They bring people together, create trust, provide information, and contribute to overall communal well-being. Yet, libraries are increasingly pressured to demonstrate their value and their usefulness to the public. In an attempt to demonstrate library value, researchers at the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) examined the use of public libraries in NB from 2010 to 2018 by looking at how many library cards are being used and how many items are being checked out. Results show that active borrowers’ demand for NB public libraries grew by 8% from 2010-2018. Since 2015, the number of active borrowers has been increasing in the South of the province (13%), especially in Moncton, Saint John, and Fredericton (19%). The authors find this positive trend is driven by population growth in the South, and that demand for libraries in the North remains constant, despite slow population growth and a suffering economy. Disruptions to library services (i.e., closure, renovations) did not lower demand for library services. Instead, library use increased, especially between 2015 and 2016, likely as a result of policy changes, including (i) more flexible ways of providing library cards, (ii) the elimination of overdue fees for children, and (iii) the opening all public libraries on Saturdays (and some on Sundays). Overall, the growth and steady demand for Public Library services in NB is remarkable, given the technological and social changes taking place throughout the province.
Tobacco use and food insecurity in New Brunswick
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2019) Emery, Herb; Tarasuk, Valerie; Guo, Xiaolin; Daigle, Bethany; Dutton, Daniel; Leonard, Philip; McDonald, Ted
Is smoking tobacco associated with higher rates of food insecurity? Food insecurity refers to a range of experiences – from concerns about running out of food before having enough money to buy more to not eating for a whole day due to a lack of food and money for food. Food insecurity is most prevalent in households with lower incomes, and food insecure families can find themselves in difficult situations in which they have to decide whether to “heat or eat.” In this report, researchers from the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT), the University of New Brunswick, and the University of Toronto examine the relationship between smoking and food insecurity to see if families are also faced with the decision to either “smoke or eat.” Using 2007-2017 data from the Canadian Community Health Survey this report asks whether smoking raises the risk of being food insecure, or smoking has no cause effect on food insecurity due to shared characteristics between smokers and food insecure households. The results show that households with smokers are more likely to be food insecure, though, food insecurity has a stronger relationship with poor health and well-being than tobacco use. Apart from the impact of smoking on food insecurity, this report also finds that individuals most likely to be food insecure are families with younger respondents, females, individuals with low levels of education, renters, urban dwellers, Aboriginals, and recent immigrants. The authors recommend a focus on implementing programs such as counselling, rather than higher taxation on cigarettes, as strategies to decrease tobacco use, as the latter could reduce the purchasing power of families’ incomes, including income available for food.
True cost of living measures for 10 provinces: Using an Engel Curve approach
(New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training, 2019) Emery, Herb; Guo, Xiaolin
What is the “True Cost of Living” in Canada? In Canada, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the official measure of the cost of living used by government and other organizations to make policy decisions, such as how to index salaries, public pension payments, and minimum wages. If the CPI does not accurately represent the cost of living, taxpayers could end up paying more than intended, and some households could receive less in the form of transfers and wages. It is therefore important that the “true cost of living” is measured accurately. Using 1997-2015 data from the Survey of Household Spending, researchers at the New Brunswick Institute for Research, Data and Training (NB-IRDT) construct “true cost of living” measures for subgroups of the Canadian population based on consumers’ behaviour while estimating biases in the official CPI. Results show that provincial CPI measurements significantly vary from the true cost of living – particularly after the 2008-2009 recession. While the CPI suggests no major shocks to the economy, this report suggests a sharp increase in the cost of living and a decrease in real incomes for all Canadian households – an economic shock that persisted beyond 2012, particularly for females and households with children. For instance, structural changes in the location and slope of Engel Curves after 2009 also appear to coincide with various economic shocks. For instance, gasoline prices increased abruptly in 2010, and energy and food prices have continued to rise. Likewise, after 2009, consumers faced tighter access to consumer credit, which was accompanied by an increase in consumers paying down debt during a time of rapid growth in commodity prices. These findings suggest that households were not buffering against price shocks following the 2008-2009 recession.

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